化债深化，城投债融资表现几何？：固定收益专题研究

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The debt resolution process is deepening, and the exit of urban investment platforms is accelerating. As of October 30, 2025, 1993.409 billion yuan of special bonds for implicit debt replacement have been issued, and special new - added special bonds have exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, far exceeding the 877.776 billion yuan in 2024. More than 60% of financing platforms have exited by the end of June 2025 [5][12]. - In the short term, the capital vitality of urban investment is significantly affected by debt resolution, and there is no obvious change with the progress of platform exit. Urban investment bonds continue the net outflow trend and the scale is expanding, mainly due to the significant reduction in weak regions and low - rated entities [5][36]. - In the primary market, new bond issuance of urban investment entities is still blocked after exiting the platform, and the use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement, with a quarterly proportion of over 70%. Both key and non - key provinces are affected by debt resolution, and the expansion willingness is low [5][26][36]. - In the secondary market, early redemption of urban investment bonds further affects the net supply. From Q1 - Q3 2025, the early redemption scale increased by 7.5 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2024, and the tender offer acquisition increased by 8.1 billion yuan. There are opportunities for early redemption games [6][26][36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Debt Resolution and Platform Exit Progress - As of October 30, 2025, 1993.409 billion yuan of special bonds for implicit debt replacement have been issued, and except for Henan Province, other regions have completed the issuance within the year. The remaining quota will be used in advance. The issuance of special new - added special bonds has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, far exceeding 877.776 billion yuan in 2024. Non - key debt - resolution regions such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hebei, and Hunan have relatively large issuance amounts, and Guangdong, Yunnan, Hebei, and Jiangsu have significant year - on - year increases [5][12]. - By the end of June 2025, more than 60% of financing platforms have exited, indicating a relatively smooth exit process within the policy framework [5][12]. 3.2. Urban Investment Bond Financing Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the net outflow of urban investment bonds is 200.3 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 74.4 billion yuan. Shandong and Guangdong are the main net inflow regions, while Jiangsu, Hunan, Chongqing, and Guizhou have large net outflow scales [18]. - By administrative level, the net outflow is mainly concentrated in district - county and national - level park entities, and the net outflow scale is still expanding year - on - year. The municipal entities have changed from net inflow to net outflow, while the provincial entities have little change [19]. - By rating, the net outflow is mainly concentrated in AA and AA+ entities. The AA entities continue the large - scale net outflow in the same period of 2024, and the AA+ entities have changed from net inflow to net outflow [20]. 3.3. Reasons for the Increase in Net Outflow of Urban Investment Bonds - Primary market: New bond issuance of urban investment entities is still blocked after exiting the platform. The use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement, with a quarterly proportion of over 70% and a slight increase compared with 2024. Most provinces, especially key provinces, mainly use bond issuance for debt replacement. Non - key provinces are also affected by debt resolution, and the expansion willingness is low [26]. - Secondary market: Early redemption of urban investment bonds further affects the net supply. From Q1 - Q3 2025, the early redemption scale increased by 7.5 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2024, and the tender offer acquisition increased by 8.1 billion yuan. The proportion of urban investment bonds redeemed at face value in Q1 - Q3 2025 is significantly lower than that in the same period of 2024, and there are opportunities for early redemption games [6][26][27]. 3.4. Summary - In the short term, the capital vitality of urban investment is significantly affected by debt resolution, and there is no obvious change with the progress of platform exit. Urban investment bonds continue the net outflow trend and the scale is expanding, mainly due to the significant reduction in weak regions and low - rated entities [36]. - In the primary market, new bond issuance is still blocked, and the use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement. In the secondary market, early redemption affects the net supply, and there are opportunities for early redemption games [36].