Huachuang Securities·2025-11-03 14:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Eastern Airlines (600115) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.53 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 34% [1] - The company's capacity growth rate is leading in the industry, contributing to better-than-expected performance [1] - The report anticipates continued profitability for the airline, supported by limited supply growth in the industry and signs of recovery in business travel demand [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 106.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a net profit of 2.1 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [8] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 39.59 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan, up 34.4% year-on-year [8] - Cost Analysis: - Operating costs for Q3 2025 were 34.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with fuel costs decreasing by 7.4% to 11.3 billion yuan [2][8] - The cost per seat kilometer was 0.403 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, indicating improved cost efficiency [2][8] - Key Financial Metrics: - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 139.38 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 781 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.19 yuan in 2024 to 0.04 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.27 yuan in 2026 [4] Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a tightening of flight schedules in the new season and a positive trend in ticket prices due to recovering business travel demand [8] - The target price for the stock is set at 5.89 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of 4.80 yuan [4][8]