美联储如期降息,美股涨势延续
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-03 14:58

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From October 24th to October 31st, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected. With Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks, the uncertainty of a December dollar interest rate cut increased. Globally, stocks rose while bonds and commodities declined. In China, stocks were divided, bonds rose, and commodities declined. Overall, as macro - expectations are fulfilled, the market is entering a "quiet period" with potentially narrower price fluctuations of major asset classes [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Major Asset Performance 1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, market sentiment fluctuated. Global stock markets were divided. US stocks continued to rise due to better - than - expected corporate earnings. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index rebounded from a weekly low [8]. - In the Asia - Pacific region, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 1.08% weekly, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.11%, and the Hang Seng Index fell - 0.97%. In the Americas, the MSCI US rose 0.77%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.71%. In other markets, the Saudi All - Share Index rose 0.38%, and the Israeli TA125 rose 1.88% [11][12][13]. 1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, although the Fed cut interest rates as expected, there were significant differences within the committee regarding a December interest rate cut. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds increased. The 10 - year US bond yield rose 9BP to 4.11%. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [14]. 1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, differences in the dollar interest rate cut within the year increased, and the dollar index rose weekly. Major non - dollar currencies against the dollar had mixed performance, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated. The dollar index rose 0.80% weekly [15]. 1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - The OPEC+ meeting met expectations, and international oil prices were weak weekly. Precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels and declined weekly. Most agricultural product prices rose, and non - ferrous metal prices had mixed performance [19]. 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance 2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, A - share major broad - based indexes lacked further upward momentum and had mixed performance. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 performed poorly. In terms of sectors, basic chemicals and new energy led the gains, while communications and banks performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.11% weekly [22]. 2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, the central bank's net open - market operation injection was 14008 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively loose, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [25]. 2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the black sector led the gains, and the chemical sector performed poorly [26]. 3. Major Asset Price Outlook - As macro - expectations are fulfilled, the market lacks clear short - term guidance and is entering a "quiet period". The price fluctuations of major asset classes may narrow [3][29].