甲醇日评：延续震荡偏弱行情-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol has continued its weak and volatile trend recently. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - Futures Prices: On November 3, 2025, compared to October 30, MA01 decreased by 28 yuan/ton (-1.27%) to 2180 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 24 yuan/ton (-1.05%) to 2260 yuan/ton, and MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.15%) to 2240 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Prices: Among different regions, prices in most regions decreased slightly, except for Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei where prices remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang decreased by 32.50 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 2157.50 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%) to 2235 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: Upstream coal and natural gas prices remained stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 220.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 1100 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, the profit of East China MTO increased by 114.50 yuan/ton (18.17%) to - 515.57 yuan/ton, while the profit of acetic acid decreased by 45.25 yuan/ton (-9.66%) to 423 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 was oversold at the end of the session, opening at 2202 yuan/ton, closing at 2180 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 826,939 lots and an open interest of 1,350,958, showing increasing volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: For far - month arriving methanol cargoes from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation was at - 4 - 1.9%, with buyers' bids at - 4%. Some far - month arriving cargoes from a Middle - East country were reported to have been traded at - 2% and - 3%. Attention should be paid to the actual operating load of methanol plants in a Middle - East country [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic and Outlook - Current Situation: Methanol has weakened recently. In terms of valuation, the price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. In terms of driving factors, the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive [1]. - Outlook: The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November. Future driving factors may come from possible supply reductions, such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it is necessary to wait before going long on methanol [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines, with a view score of 0 [1].