碳酸锂日评：存回调空间-20251103

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream and improved macro - conditions. The cancellation of warehouse receipts drives up the price. However, production remains at a high level, and after the price increase, downstream inventory replenishment slows down. The inflection point of power demand may be approaching, so it is expected that the lithium price has room for a callback. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Data - Futures Data: On October 31, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract of lithium carbonate futures was 79,300 yuan/ton, down 2,540 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 915,245 lots (+86,128), and the open interest was 510,440 lots (-44,231) [3]. - Spot Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,550 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 78,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic) had different price changes, with an increase of 400 yuan in some types [3]. - Inventory Data: The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed different trends in different sectors. The registered warehouse receipts were 27,621 tons (-20), and the total inventory was 127,358 tons, down 3,008 tons compared to before [3]. 3.2 Industry Trends - Global Energy Storage: From January to June 2025, the global energy - storage cell shipments reached 246.4 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 115.2%. The top ten enterprises were all from China, and the domestic enterprises' share of energy - storage lithium - battery shipments in the world exceeded 94%. According to the current expansion progress, the overseas production capacity will be put into operation intensively from 2026 - 2028 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. The price of spodumene powder remained flat, and the price of lithium mica remained stable [3]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased. In October, the production schedule of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3].