固定收益专题研究：十年国债ETF投资价值分析：震荡市中的稳健配置选择

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Low interest rates will become the norm in the long - term economic operation. The continuous decline of interest rates is a long - term global trend, and China's interest rate center has significantly shifted downward due to economic transformation [1][13]. - With the central bank restarting bond purchases, there are still periodic opportunities in the bond market. The current domestic economy faces pressure, and the restart of bond purchases is conducive to restoring investor sentiment, and long - term bonds are expected to rebound in the short term [2][27]. - In the context of the downward shift of the interest rate center, the ten - year Treasury bond ETF is a preferred tool for optimizing asset portfolios, with both income elasticity and risk controllability [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Central Tendency Downward Judgment - Global Interest Rate Evolution: Interest rates have shown a long - term downward trend over the past few centuries, with the decline being more obvious after 1500. Interest rate decline is a general trend, and different countries' real interest rates are becoming more correlated [14]. - Domestic Interest Rate Outlook: China's economic transformation from a capital - driven to a technology - driven model has led to a significant downward shift in the interest rate center. Since 2002, the interest rate center of China's ten - year Treasury bonds has gradually decreased in three stages [17][18]. 2. Central Bank Restarts Bond Purchases, Long - term Bonds May Rebound Periodically - 2025 Bond Market Review: In the first three quarters of 2025, the bond market yield showed an "N" - shaped trend. The bond market was affected by factors such as central bank policies, economic data, and market sentiment. Since August, the ten - year Treasury bond yield has rebounded, and the central bank's restart of bond purchases is expected to improve the bond market environment [21][22][24]. - Future Outlook: The current domestic economy still faces pressure. The restart of central bank bond purchases is conducive to restoring investor sentiment, and long - term bonds are expected to rebound in the short term [2][27]. 3. Reasons to Focus on Ten - year Treasury Bond ETF - Asset Allocation Perspective: The ten - year Treasury bond has low volatility and good drawdown control. It has better risk - control capabilities and more stable returns compared to other assets, making it a good choice for risk - averse investors [35][38]. - Ten - year vs. Ultra - long - term Bonds: The ten - year Treasury bond is more stable and flexible than ultra - long - term bonds. It can better reflect economic expectations and policy orientation, and has higher trading activity [40][41]. - ETF Form Value - added: Investing in bond ETFs has advantages such as high liquidity, low transaction costs, low investment thresholds, and high transparency. The bond ETF market has grown rapidly this year [46]. 4. Investment Value Analysis of Ten - year Treasury Bond ETF - Product Information: The ten - year Treasury bond ETF is a low - risk fund under Guotai Fund, which tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury bond index using an optimized sampling replication strategy [50]. - Performance: The ten - year Treasury bond ETF has outstanding historical performance, significantly outperforming its performance benchmark. Its one - year and three - year interval returns, annualized interval returns, and Sharpe ratios are better than the median of similar funds [53]. - Manager Background: Guotai Fund is a comprehensive and diversified large - scale asset management company with a complete product line. The fund managers of the ten - year Treasury bond ETF have rich experience [58][59].