债券研究周报：多少机构看好本轮债市做多？-20251103

Report Overview - Report date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Title: How Many Institutions Are Optimistic about the Current Bond Market Rally? Bond Research Weekly Report - Core analysts: Yan Ziqi, Guo Xiyuan 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From October 28 to November 3, the sentiment of bond market sellers significantly rebounded, and the sentiment of buyers turned from negative to positive. Meanwhile, the divergence of sellers' views increased. After events such as the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and China-US consultations, and with the expectation of restarting treasury bond trading, both buyers and sellers became optimistic about the bond market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment 3.1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Significantly Increased from October 28 to November 3 - The unweighted sentiment index from October 28 to November 3 was 0.54, up 0.36 from October 21 - 27, with an increased proportion of bullish views. Among 24 institutions, 1 was bullish, 12 were moderately bullish, 10 were neutral, and 1 was moderately bearish [13]. - 4% of institutions were bullish, citing factors such as over - consumption due to subsidies, a rapid decline in bank liability costs, and loose liquidity, and predicting that the 10Y treasury bond yield would return to around 1.65% this year [5][13]. - 50% of institutions were moderately bullish, believing that the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, economic pressure, and the deepening asset shortage, along with potential factors like the new rules on public fund sales fees, might be digested in advance by the market [5][13]. - 42% of institutions were neutral, stating that the tug - of - war between bullish and bearish factors, a strong equity market suppressing the bond market, and weak financing demand and domestic demand limiting the upside of interest rates, creating a "ceiling - floor" pattern [5][13]. - 4% of institutions were moderately bearish, arguing that inflation might rise due to factors like anti - involution and improved corporate profits, long - term yields might follow inflation expectations, the probability of future interest rate cuts was low, and restarting treasury bond trading would not change the upward trend of bond yields [5][13]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Turned from Negative to Positive from October 28 to November 3 - The unweighted sentiment index from October 28 to November 3 was 0.33, up from the previous period. Among 24 institutions, 10 were moderately bullish, 12 were neutral, and 2 were moderately bearish [14]. - 42% of institutions were moderately bullish, due to weak economic data, an asset shortage, positive institutional behavior, and strong allocation demand [6][14]. - 50% of institutions were neutral, suggesting that the central bank might have a target range for the 10 - year treasury bond yield, and the market lacked a clear single driver for a trend - breaking movement, likely to remain in a "narrow - range fluctuation" state [6][14]. - 8% of institutions were moderately bearish, noting that the decrease in positions showed a "price - rising and position - decreasing" pattern, the market's upward momentum was weakening, and the bond market was still in a headwind, with yields likely to rise [6][14].