黑色金属日报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear downward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coking Coal: The rating is not clearly interpretable from the given symbol [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★★★ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Ferrosilicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable from the given symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market as a whole is under pressure, with the futures market in a low - level range - bound state. The real estate investment continues to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continue to fall. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the market sentiment is cautious [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level and weakly volatile state. Although the supply is still at a high level and the demand is under pressure due to the decline in iron - making water production and low steel - mill profitability [2]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel profit is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [3][5]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are likely to have narrow - range fluctuations. The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is at a high level [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The futures market continued to decline. The apparent demand for thread improved month - on - month, production increased simultaneously, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot roll remained good, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline [2]. - Iron - making water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity was insufficient. As steel - mill profits declined, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain still needed to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in places like Tangshan [2]. - From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. The overall domestic demand was still weak, steel exports remained high, the demand expectation was weak, the market sentiment was cautious, and the futures market was under pressure to decline [2]. Iron Ore - The futures market declined, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipments this period declined month - on - month but were still at a high level in the same period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, with Brazilian shipments still at a high level in the same period and Australian shipments basically at the level of previous years [2]. - The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high for the year. On the demand side, the iron - making water production decreased significantly last week, the steel - mill profitability rate reached a new low for the year, and there was further pressure to reduce production in the future [2]. - After the short - term continuous rebound of the iron ore futures market, there was a tendency to realize some positive factors in the market. It is expected that the iron ore will be in a high - level and weakly volatile state [2]. Coke - The price fluctuated downward during the day. There was an expectation of a third round of price increases in the coking industry. The coking profit was average, the daily production decreased slightly, and the coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream customers made small - quantity purchases as needed, and the inventory increased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness was average [3]. - Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - making water production remained at a high level, which supported the raw materials. However, the steel profit level was average, and there was a strong sentiment to suppress the raw material prices. The coke futures market was at a premium, and the market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3]. Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment was affected by the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting environmental protection standards, and the price dropped rapidly. However, more coal mines facing resource integration had not resumed production, so it was judged that the price was difficult to continue to decline [5]. - The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, the transaction prices generally increased, and the terminal inventory increased. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts as safety supervision teams were about to enter the main coal production areas [5]. - Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - making water production remained at a high level, which supported the raw materials. However, the steel profit level was average, and there was a strong sentiment to suppress the raw material prices. The coking coal futures market was at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - The price fluctuated mainly during the day. On the demand side, the iron - making water production remained at a high level above 236. The weekly production of ferrosilicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The ferrosilicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand was still good [6]. - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted following the futures market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. The price was likely to have narrow - range fluctuations [6]. Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated mainly during the day. On the demand side, the iron - making water production remained at a high level above 236. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand was acceptable [7]. - The ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to be depleted. The price was likely to have narrow - range fluctuations [7].