国投期货软商品日报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Log: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - Overall, different soft commodities have different market conditions and price trends. Some prices are expected to be weak, some are in a state of uncertainty, and some are showing signs of strength or weakness. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant factors such as policies, weather, inventory, and sales, and most commodities are recommended to be on the sidelines for the time being [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton rose slightly today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable. The acquisition in northern Xinjiang is basically over, while that in southern Xinjiang is still ongoing, with higher prices in southern Xinjiang. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. The spot trading last week was average, the downstream pure - cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly, and the market transaction was dull. The new orders of weaving factories were poor, and the stocking willingness was low. Zheng cotton's short - term trend may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the first half of October was neutral, with the cane crushing volume basically the same year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio decreasing month - on - month but still increasing slightly year - on - year. In China, Zheng sugar was relatively strong. There were rumors of syrup import control, providing some support. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi since July has been good, and the sugar output in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. It is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. The inventory progress in Shandong is slow, and the initial cold - storage inventory is uncertain. Due to poor quality but high prices, the reluctance to sell is high, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The apple price is high, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory situation and wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated, NR fell slightly, and BR fell sharply. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight increase, while the synthetic rubber spot price decreased. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and China's Yunnan production area is about to enter the mature period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate decreased last week, and some plants had maintenance or planned maintenance. In October, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 93,000 units, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly last week, and the finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 432,200 tons, while the butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 148,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures rose sharply. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream port sample inventory in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase. In September, China imported 2.9525 million tons of pulp, a 272,500 - ton year - on - year increase. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is relatively loose, the demand is average, the downstream traditional peak - season expectation is not strong, and the terminal order release is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Log - The futures price is running weakly, and the spot mainstream price is stable. In November, the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, the domestic spot price remained weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The external quotation is still high, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port delivery volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [8]