煤炭行业2025年三季报综述：煤价筑底反转，权益震荡修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [13]. Core Insights - The coal price has bottomed out and is showing signs of recovery, leading to improved earnings for the coal sector in Q3 2025. The sector's revenue and profit have improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis despite a year-on-year decline [5][29]. - The report highlights that the domestic coal supply is being constrained due to production checks, while demand is gradually improving, particularly in the power sector, which is expected to support coal prices in the upcoming quarters [6][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the coal sector achieved a revenue of CNY 849.4 billion, down 18.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 82.05 billion, down 29.4% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue was CNY 300.86 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year but up 11.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of CNY 29.29 billion, down 24.6% year-on-year but up 21.4% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. Thermal Coal - The thermal coal segment reported a revenue of CNY 677.3 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, down 16% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was CNY 242.4 billion, down 7% year-on-year but up 13% quarter-on-quarter. The average price for Qinhuangdao Shanxi-produced thermal coal (Q5500) in Q3 was CNY 672 per ton, down 21% year-on-year but up 6% quarter-on-quarter [6][29]. Coking Coal - The coking coal segment saw a revenue of CNY 125.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, down 29% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was CNY 42.7 billion, down 28% year-on-year but up 7% quarter-on-quarter. The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port was CNY 1,562 per ton, down 18% year-on-year but up 19% quarter-on-quarter [7][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery opportunities in the coal sector, emphasizing companies with low price-to-book ratios and dividends. Key recommendations include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Electric Power Investment Corporation, and New Hope Liuhe Company for their growth potential and stability [8].