迈向新高度

Core Insights - The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is relatively low compared to historical and overseas levels, indicating potential for upward movement and enhanced cost-effectiveness post-adjustment [3][6][60] - There is a clear expectation of incremental capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks next year, with foreign capital likely to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan due to low allocation and the backdrop of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][29][25] - Hong Kong stocks are seen as a gathering place for innovative Chinese assets, with sectors such as internet, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividends expected to support the ongoing bull market [3][50] - The technology sector, particularly under the influence of the AI wave, is anticipated to be the main theme for the Hong Kong market in 2026, with a focus on innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms benefiting from the bull market [3][4][70] Valuation and Market Position - Hong Kong stocks are currently positioned in a global valuation trough, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's PE-TTM at 22.9 times, placing it in the 29th percentile historically [6][10] - Compared to A-shares and U.S. stocks, Hong Kong's technology sector shows higher valuation attractiveness, with significant room for valuation uplift as the market stabilizes [9][10][60] - The potential for valuation improvement is supported by the balance between valuation and earnings, with the AI industry expected to catalyze improvements in return on equity (ROE) for Hong Kong stocks [17][60] Capital Inflows and Market Dynamics - There is a strong expectation for foreign capital to return to Hong Kong stocks, with signs of stabilization in outflows since mid-year, and a potential return exceeding expectations if the Federal Reserve continues to lower rates and U.S.-China trade relations stabilize [20][25][23] - Domestic capital is also expected to play a significant role, with southbound funds projected to continue inflowing into Hong Kong stocks, potentially exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan next year [29][32] - The report highlights that the allocation of foreign capital to Chinese equity assets is currently low, with only 3.3% of the MSCI ACWI index assets allocated to China as of September 2025 [20][23] Sector Analysis - The scarcity of quality assets in Hong Kong is a significant factor supporting the market's upward potential, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and pharmaceuticals, which are aligned with current industry trends [4][50][54] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative pharmaceuticals, which are transitioning from a focus on research and development to realizing results, with significant financial transactions indicating market growth [66][68] - Brokerage firms are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes and a favorable market environment, with the influx of southbound capital driving performance [70][71]