格林大华期货早盘提示-20251104

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal (coking coal and coke) sector is "Oscillating with a Bearish Bias" [1] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that the coking coal and coke markets will oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Conditions - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1284.5, down 0.12% from the day - session opening; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1771.5, down 0.31% from the day - session opening. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1287.5, up 0.23% from the day - session close; J2601 closed at 1779.0, up 0.42% from the day - session close [1] Important News - The Ministry of Finance has newly established a Debt Management Department, responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc [1] - Shanxi Jianlong began to overhaul a 1080m³ blast furnace on November 1st, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.42 million tons. After that, it will overhaul a 1380m³ blast furnace. From November 1st to 5th, two rebar rolling lines were shut down, affecting daily output by about 0.7 million tons. After the bar production resumes, the plate output will decrease [1] - Heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency responses were launched in cities in Hebei such as Tangshan, Qian'an, etc. starting from 18:00 on November 3rd [1] Market Logic - Yesterday, the coking coal spot market had strong transactions. The supply of coking coal tightened, and traders were hoarding and reluctant to sell. For coke, the rapid rise in costs has promoted the third round of price increases, which are expected to be implemented soon. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production dropped significantly, but the tight supply of raw materials and the downstream's need to maintain production inventory support the strong prices of raw materials. However, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly yesterday, rising sharply at the opening and then回调. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the upper pressure on coking coal and coke remains at 1320, and they should be regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias [1]