有色金属日报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Alumina: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly stated, represented by "文文文" [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend [1] - Tin: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is diverse, with different metals showing different trends and influencing factors [2][3][4] - Market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations all play important roles in determining the price trends of various non - ferrous metals [9][10][11] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices reaching new highs are supported by supply - loss themes and high capital allocation interest. There are concerns about high prices suppressing consumption in the medium - and short - term. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, with low processing fees. The closure of the port in Tanzania may slow down copper exports to China in November. There is a risk of short - term correction after reaching a record high, but the MA20 moving average provides strong support [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price rose. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [3] Zinc - The zinc ingot export window is open. LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and SMM zinc social inventory decreased. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased. The short - term rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly, with weak downstream demand. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, and the overall nickel industry chain price may be dragged down. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation with a downward - moving center of gravity [7] Tin - Tin prices oscillated last week, mainly following the copper price rhythm. The closure of the port in Tanzania may affect tin exports to China. There is still demand for spot tin at rigid - need price points. It is advisable to short at high levels or wait for a clear breakthrough [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with active market trading. The market has strong supply and demand. The total inventory decreased. The futures price is strengthening, and it is expected to be in a short - term strong oscillation [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Supply has decreased significantly due to the dry - season production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan. The industry has entered a stage of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be firm, but the upward space is limited by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are firm, with a slight increase. The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, but there is a significant risk of high - level correction if policies are not implemented or spot prices do not follow [11]