金信期货日刊-20251104

Group 1: Glass Futures - The glass 2601 futures fluctuated upward on November 3rd, reaching a maximum of 1,126 yuan/ton and closing slightly higher. The rise was due to the temporary dominance of the expected side in the long - short game [3]. - The core drivers are: spot price cuts stimulating demand, with many regions' sales - to - production ratios exceeding 100%, and mid - downstream replenishment providing short - term price support; coal price increases pushing up production costs and providing a rigid bottom for low prices; the approaching industry meeting spurring policy - favorable expectations, and some funds closing positions in advance to avoid risks, leading to a rise with reduced positions [3]. - Four coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area stopped feeding on November 2nd, involving a daily production capacity of 2,400 tons. After the news, local glass traders stocked up, and the sales - to - production ratio on Sunday reached 166%, the highest since the National Day holiday [3]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the implementation and breakthrough of industry meeting policies, and short - long opportunities should be grasped [4]. - Technically, the glass futures rose and then fell today, and may maintain a volatile operation in the short term. The daily melting change is small, inventory has decreased this week, and future drivers mainly lie in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [19][20]. Group 2: A - share Index - A - share's three major indexes opened lower and moved lower in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index turned positive first near noon, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index followed in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small阳线 with a long lower shadow. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Group 3: Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilizing, and investors can buy on dips [12]. Group 4: Iron Ore - After the holiday, there is no actual improvement at the terminal, and hot metal production may decline periodically. Technically, it fell back near the previous high, and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [15]. - In the short term, there are long - term agreement negotiations and accident disturbances on the supply side, but in the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply still exists [16]. Group 5: Eggs - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and the supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. However, based on the current price and cost, future egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken. Investors can grasp short - long opportunities [23]. Group 6: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. Downstream paper mills' price increases boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the port inventory reduction is still lower than expected, and the purchasing side is cautious. Pulp is expected to continue to operate weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [26].