Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The price of CBOT soybeans rose on Monday due to favorable trade relations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the import of US soybeans will slow down the de - stocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, but in the medium - term, it is still advisable to sell on rebounds as the global soybean supply is expected to be loose [2][3][5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil market is suppressed by the unexpectedly high production in Malaysia and Indonesia. If the high production in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time point may come earlier. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [10]. - Sugar: The tightening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures, but the external market is still weak. It is advisable to look for opportunities to short after the rebound weakens [14]. - Cotton: The demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expectation of a bountiful harvest in the new year, and the upward space for cotton prices is relatively limited in the short - term [17]. - Eggs: The expectation of a decline in inventory due to low replenishment and high culling, combined with the increasing enthusiasm for stockpiling after the temperature drops, has broken the downward spiral of egg prices. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and the medium - term focus is on the upper pressure [19]. - Pigs: The market is under high supply pressure, and the futures price has independently reflected the future supply pressure. The overall idea is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse spread positions instead [22]. Summary by Category Protein Meal - Market Information: On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose by 50 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 3000 yuan/ton. The MYSTEEL statistics show that the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.06 days to 8.02 days last week. The port soybean inventory decreased slightly but remained above 9 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose to over 1.15 million tons. The MYSTEEL predicts that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The import cost fluctuates mainly. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure, but there is some support as it gradually enters the de - stocking season. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, but in the medium - term, it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [5]. Fats and Oils - Market Information: ITS and AMSPEC data show that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 30 increased compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased compared with the same period last month. The import volume of edible oil in India in October decreased compared with the previous month. On Monday, the domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil rebounding rapidly and palm oil still constrained by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6][7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [10]. Sugar - Market Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 5499 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories remained unchanged. The UNICA data shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the first half of October [12][13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The tightening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures, but the external market is still weak. It is advisable to look for opportunities to short after the rebound weakens [14]. Cotton - Market Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. As of the week ending October 31, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, and the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expectation of a bountiful harvest in the new year, and the upward space for cotton prices is relatively limited in the short - term [17]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price was stable or declined yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped slightly to 2.84 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the market demand is average, and the downstream purchases on demand. It is expected that the egg price will be mostly stable with a small decline today [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The expectation of a decline in inventory due to low replenishment and high culling, combined with the increasing enthusiasm for stockpiling after the temperature drops, has broken the downward spiral of egg prices. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and the medium - term focus is on the upper pressure [19]. Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price mainly declined yesterday. The average price in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangxi decreased. The slaughter of breeding groups gradually recovered, and the number of pigs sold by individual farmers increased. The downstream slaughterhouses' procurement difficulty decreased, and the pork product sales were average. It is expected that the pig price will continue to decline slightly today [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is under high supply pressure, and the futures price has independently reflected the future supply pressure. The overall idea is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse spread positions instead [22].
五矿期货农产品早报：农产品早报2025-11-04-20251104
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-04 01:45