中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌参半，能源品涨幅居前-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Policy boots have landed, risk appetite has recovered, and the idea of balanced allocation is maintained. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of balance - sheet reduction, the achievement of phased economic and trade results in the China - US summit, and the release of specific contents of the Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal", market sentiment has improved. The marginal improvement in liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit domestic and overseas equity assets again, especially in the directions of technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation. However, the short - term policy benefits have been fully priced in, and valuation pressure and capital congestion may cause the stock index to fluctuate and consolidate. In the medium term, as the "15th Five - Year Plan" is implemented and the policies of the Two Sessions next year are put into effect, the upward momentum of the equity market still exists. At present, it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation idea. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well supported by the technology cycle and trade recovery. Black commodities have phased rebound opportunities due to policy expectations and valuation repair. Bonds maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Precious metals are sorted out in the short term but the medium - and long - term allocation value remains unchanged. The overall strategy framework of "balanced allocation, structural attack" is continued [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in the October meeting and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December to cope with the rising reserve demand and short - term interest rate fluctuations. This operation reflects the risk management idea in the economic data vacuum period, taking into account both stable growth and liquidity stability [6]. - Domestic Macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" set the tone of "technological self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" and strengthen the "focus on economic construction". The PMI in October dropped to 49.0%. The manufacturing industry slowed down in the short term, but the construction and service industries remained expanding. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds were accelerated to be implemented, investment repair accelerated, and the economy continued to stabilize [6]. - Asset View: With the implementation of policies, risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. The improvement of liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit equity assets at home and abroad, especially in the technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation directions. In the short term, the stock index may fluctuate due to valuation pressure and capital congestion. In the medium term, the equity market still has upward momentum. Non - ferrous metals perform well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are volatile and slightly stronger, and precious metals have medium - and long - term allocation value [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the congestion of small - and micro - cap funds. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - Stock Index Options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined. Concerns include the liquidity of the options market falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight rate decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and Iron Ore: The macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market first rises and then falls. The supply - demand relationship weakens marginally, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is proposed. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Coking Coal: Supply is difficult to improve, and upstream inventory is continuously reduced. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Silicon Iron: Cost support still exists, but loose supply - demand suppresses prices. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and the price first rises and then falls. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Glass: The meeting expectations have been realized, and downstream demand remains weak. Concerns include spot sales. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Soda Ash: Cost support is strengthened, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Concerns include soda ash inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term. Concerns include supply disruptions, domestic policy exceeding expectations, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure. Concerns include ore复产 falling short of expectations, electrolytic aluminum复产 exceeding expectations, and extreme sector trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Aluminum: Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices have risen in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - Zinc: Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Lead: The resumption of production of secondary lead smelters is imminent, and lead prices are volatile. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and nickel prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro and geopolitical changes exceeding expectations, Indonesian policy risks, and supply release falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Stainless Steel: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded slightly. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Tin: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are volatile. Concerns include the resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is volatile, but supply is abundant, and silicon prices are volatile in the short term. Concerns include supply - side production cuts exceeding expectations and photovoltaic installation exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and lithium prices are slightly stronger. Concerns include demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - LPG: Supply is still in surplus, and attention should be paid to the cost side. Concerns include the cost of crude oil and overseas propane. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Asphalt: Entering the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and asphalt futures prices are weak. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: There is an expected decline in Asia - Pacific fuel oil supply in November. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - Methanol: There is still port inventory pressure, and olefins have declined. Methanol fluctuates downward. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Urea: Market sentiment has cooled down. Urea may fluctuate and consolidate at the cost - support level after the decline. Concerns include coal prices. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: The macro - environment lacks support, and the fundamentals are under pressure in the medium term. The price elasticity is average. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and China - US trade frictions. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - PX: The "anti - involution" meeting has no conclusion but boosts the market. The downstream demand improvement still drives the upstream. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - PTA: Macro - sentiment boosts the market, and downstream demand improvement supports the lower valuation. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Short - Fiber: The "anti - involution" disturbance of polyester raw materials has increased the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the market returns to fundamentals. Concerns include the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the quality of peak - season demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Bottle Chip: The processing fee is under great pressure. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction targets. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Propylene: The propane CP price has been lowered again. PL is weaker than PP in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - PP: Maintenance is stable, and the propane CP price is lowered. PP is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Plastic: Maintenance has increased slightly. Plastic is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Styrene: Disturbed by macro - events, styrene fluctuates. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - PVC: Market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Caustic Soda: Demand support is limited, and caustic soda fluctuates downward. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The trends are differentiated, and palm oil sentiment is weak. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Protein Meal: Disturbed by China - Canada relations, rapeseed meal has risen sharply. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, macro - environment, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Corn/Starch: The market has declined again. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe. Concerns include demand, macro - environment, and weather. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Pigs: The supply of pigs is abundant, and prices are weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - Natural Rubber: The willingness to sell has increased, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Synthetic Rubber: Raw materials have continued to weaken, and the market has temporarily stabilized at a low level. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Cotton: The expected benefits have been mostly digested, and the upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened in the short term. Concerns include demand and inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Sugar: Sugar prices have rebounded, but the upward space is limited. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - Pulp: The spot market is generally weak, and futures are difficult to rise significantly. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - priced quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Offset Paper: Offset paper follows pulp to strengthen. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - Logs: It is difficult to rise or fall, and the market is bottom - fluctuating. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. Short - term judgment is volatile [9].