研究所晨会观点精萃-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2][3] - Treasury Bonds: Short - term oscillation and rebound, cautious long positions [2] - Black Metals: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2] - Energy and Chemicals: Short - term oscillation, cautious long positions [2] - Precious Metals: Short - term high - level correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economic data shows signs of cooling, but the market has doubts about the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year, leading to a stronger US dollar and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down, but the policy stimulus expectation increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and the quality of economic growth, with the short - term upward macro - drive weakening [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to oscillate in the short term, precious metals are in a short - term high - level correction, and various commodities have different trends and investment strategies based on their fundamentals [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Macro: Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, with weak demand, employment, and cooling inflation. The US job market shows signs of cooling, and corporate lay - offs this year have reached a new high since 2020. The US dollar index has strengthened, and global risk appetite has declined. Domestically, China's manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down. Policy stimulus expectations increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2]. - Stocks: Driven by sectors such as film and television theaters, short - drama games, and oil and gas, the domestic stock market rose. The manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term oscillation and rebound, cautious long positions [2]. - Precious Metals: The precious metals market declined slightly on Monday night. The market is waiting for US private - sector employment data to assess the possibility of the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. Short - term oscillation, long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. 3.2 Black Metals - Steel: The steel spot and futures markets declined slightly on Monday, and trading volume remained low. Real - world demand improved marginally in late October, and speculative demand also increased. Supply decreased due to losses in some varieties and environmental protection restrictions. The short - term steel market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate within a range [4][5]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined more on Monday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits and the upgrading of environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, and steel mill ore inventories decreased. The global iron ore arrival volume increased significantly this week, and port inventories continued to rise. Iron ore prices are expected to decline further [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot price of silicon iron declined slightly, and that of silicon manganese remained flat on Monday, with the futures prices oscillating. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [6]. - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range on Monday. Supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter, with supply remaining loose. Demand remained stable. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will drag down prices, and a bearish view is recommended [7]. - Glass: The main contract of glass opened high and closed low on Monday, affected by news from Shahe. Supply remained stable, demand was weak year - on - year, and inventory was relatively high. With the support of anti - involution policies, glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end completion peak [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts. US copper inventories are at a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestically, refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine will support futures prices, and short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8][9]. - Aluminum: On Monday, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply to a one - year high. There is no clear news, and the rise may be due to the repair of the copper - aluminum price ratio and concerns about supply after overseas smelter accidents. The current rise has deviated from fundamentals, and attention should be paid to risks. LME aluminum inventories increased last Friday, and domestic aluminum social inventories de - stocked slowly [9]. - Tin: The smelting start - up rate increased significantly and then decreased slightly, remaining at a high level. Supply is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and high prices suppress physical demand. However, due to previous low inventories, some downstream enterprises replenished stocks, and inventories decreased. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium and short term [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Monday. The current supply and demand are both strong, and social inventories are de - stocking rapidly. There was a rumor of the resumption of production in Jiangxi, which led to a decline in the weighted contract. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Monday. Demand is relatively stable, and social inventories are slightly increasing at a high level. Supported by the cash - flow cost of large enterprises and the rising coal price, the market is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Monday. With strong policy expectations and weak reality in a stalemate, the spot price of polysilicon is supported, but terminal demand is weak. Affected by the rumor of polysilicon storage and the resonance of the photovoltaic sector, it is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buy on dips [12][13]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is weighing OPEC+'s plan to suspend production increases next quarter. There are concerns about oversupply next year. The short - term upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to window trading [14]. - Asphalt: The cost support of asphalt weakened, and the basis narrowed. There is a slight inventory accumulation pressure, and it is approaching the demand off - season. Although the profit is slightly increasing, the supply pressure will increase later. Attention should be paid to the rebound space of crude oil under geopolitical risks [14]. - PX: Crude oil price rebound slowed down, and PX oscillated. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. PX remains in a tight supply situation, and short - term price changes are mainly driven by crude oil costs [15]. - PTA: Downstream start - up increased slightly, and winter weaving demand increased. However, the supply remains high, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventories accumulated again, and the downstream start - up is neutral. There is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November, and the price is testing the previous low support with limited rebound drive [15]. - Short - fiber: Short - fiber oscillates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the later pressure is large. Terminal orders are seasonally declining, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [16]. - Methanol: The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Port inventories are slightly decreasing, while inland inventories are accumulating. In the short term, the market sentiment is bearish, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate later [17]. - PP: The supply growth rate of PP is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is relatively high. However, demand shows marginal improvement, and the rebound of crude oil prices supports the cost. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. - LLDPE: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to decline after the peak in early November, and the cost support is weak. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [17]. - Urea: Urea supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Agricultural demand is approaching the end, and industrial demand is weak. Export is expected to remain at a low level [18]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT soybean futures rose overnight. Sino - US agricultural trade is expected to improve, and the USDA may raise the export forecast. If the yield per unit decreases, the US soybean ending inventory will shrink, strengthening the cost - recovery logic [19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. The repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations may lead to higher import costs and potential inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal prices rose, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [19][20]. - Palm Oil: Palm oil has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there is short - term supply disturbance, it has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged. It is running weakly in China [21]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Soybean oil is adjusting weakly. The supply is strong, but it is relatively resistant to decline due to the increase in import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is high, but rapeseed inventory is low, and the base price is supported by trade concerns [22]. - Corn: The pressure of wet corn sales has weakened, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is running weakly, but the bottom - range market may provide support [22]. - Hogs: The overall slaughter volume of pig groups is expected to increase in November. The breeding profit is in the red, and the pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice bacon - curing consumption peak in December [22].