国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: Lack of drivers, focus on short - term support [2][4] - Soybean Oil: With the rebound of US soybeans, maintaining the strategy of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2][4] - Soybean Meal: US soybeans hit a new high, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][10] - Soybean No.1: State reserve purchases have started, and the market shows stability [2][10] - Corn: Oscillating [2][13] - Sugar: Trading within a range [2][17] - Cotton: The impact of seed cotton prices on cotton futures has weakened [2][22] - Eggs: Oscillating and adjusting [2][26] - Hogs: The price center further shifts down [2][28] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2][33] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil main contract closed at 8,664 yuan/ton (down 1.14%) during the day and 8,676 yuan/ton (up 0.14%) at night; soybean oil main contract closed at 8,110 yuan/ton (down 0.22%) during the day and 8,148 yuan/ton (up 0.47%) at night. The trading volume and open interest of both had certain changes [4] - News: From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 4.50% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.20% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.55% month - on - month. The expected export volume from October 1 - 31 was 1,282,036 tons, a 26.54% increase from the previous month [5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamentals: DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4,076 yuan/ton (down 0.46%) during the day; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,026 yuan/ton (up 0.70%) during the day. The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had certain increases [10] - News: On November 3, CBOT soybean futures closed sharply higher, reaching a 16 - month high, due to the expectation of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans [9][10] - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1; soybean No.1 trend intensity is 0 [12] Corn - Fundamentals: The closing prices of C2511 and C2601 had certain changes, and the trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding data [14] - News: The northern corn bulk shipping and containerized grain collection prices were basically flat, while the prices in Guangdong Shekou decreased by 20 yuan/ton [15] - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16] Sugar - Fundamentals: The original sugar price was 14.65 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,499 yuan/ton. The spreads and basis also had corresponding data [17] - News: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [17] - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20] Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601 closed at 13,600 yuan/ton (up 0.04%) during the day, and CY2601 closed at 19,920 yuan/ton (up 0.23%) during the day. The trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding changes [22] - News: The cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the cotton yarn market was generally stable. Some high - count yarns had better sales, while low - count yarns had fewer new orders [23] - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25] Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing prices of egg 2512 and egg 2601 had certain increases, and the spot prices in different regions also had corresponding changes [26] - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26] Hogs - Fundamentals: The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees, and the futures prices of different contracts also decreased. The trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding changes [30] - News: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses, and the national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year increase [32] - Trend Intensity: Hog trend intensity is -1 [31] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The spot prices of different peanut varieties had certain changes, and the futures prices of PK511 and PK601 decreased slightly. The trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding data [33] - News: The peanut spot market in different regions had different performances, with some areas having stable prices and some having a slightly stronger trend [34] - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [35]