国泰君安期货所长早读-20251104

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI data was mixed. The PMI was 50.6, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but lower than the previous value of 51.2, suggesting a slowdown in growth [7]. - The soymeal market should focus on the return to US soybean cost trading. The domestic soymeal market has been in a "trade news trading" phase since late August. After the US President's Asian trip at the end of October, relevant trade agreements were reached, which had a substantial positive impact on US soybeans and soymeal. The price of US soybeans reached a new high in nearly 16 months, and domestic soymeal rebounded cautiously [8]. - The soda ash market trend remains weak. In the short term, the reduction in glass production in the Shahe area has put pressure on the rigid demand for soda ash. In the medium term, the problems of high production and high inventory in the soda ash industry have not slowed down but increased [10]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Metals - Gold: Focus on US bank risks. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][16][18]. - Silver: It is expected to have an oscillatory rebound. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [13][16][18]. - Copper: The decrease in LME inventory limits price decline. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][20][22]. - Zinc: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][23][25]. - Lead: The continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][26][27]. - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [13][29][32]. - Aluminum: It is expected to have a strong - oscillatory trend. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [13][33][35]. - Alumina: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][33][35]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is expected to have a strong - oscillatory trend. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [13][33][35]. - Nickel: The accumulation of inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while the uncertainty at the ore end provides support. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][37][39]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price is expected to run in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][37][39]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: There is a game between improving demand and the expectation of resuming production, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][40][43]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the bottom support is relatively strong. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [13][44][47]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to whether an announcement will be released this week. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][45][47]. - Iron Ore: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][48]. - Rebar: Affected by sector sentiment, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][50][53]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by sector sentiment, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][50][53]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][54][57]. - Manganese Silicide: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][54][57]. - Coke: It is expected to have a strong - oscillatory trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][58][60]. - Coking Coal: The macro and sector themes resonate, and it is expected to have a strong - oscillatory trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][59][60]. - Log: It is expected to oscillate repeatedly [13][61].