国泰君安期货PXPTAMEG基本面数据

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: It is in a high - level volatile market with increasing supply and decreasing demand. It follows PTA unilaterally. Attention should be paid to shorting PXN on rallies. Cost - side aromatics blending oil demand supports valuation [1][7]. - PTA: It is considered to be on the stronger side unilaterally due to positive demand feedback. The polyester load has rebounded beyond expectations, and the short - term supply has decreased. However, the future inventory build - up pattern is clear, and the upside space for positive spreads is limited. Operate within a range, and short on rallies when the processing fee is above 300 [1][7]. - MEG: The unilateral price has reached a new low, and the supply pressure is still large. Look for opportunities to short the spread on rallies. Although some coal - chemical plants plan to conduct maintenance, the supply pressure remains large from mid - November [1][7][8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 3, the PX price was weakly maintained. One December Asian spot was traded at 823, and one January Asian spot was traded at 817. The PX valuation on November 3 was 819 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar from last Friday. The estimated price of December MOPJ is currently 571 dollars/ton CFR [3]. - PTA: On November 3, the PTA spot price rose to 4535 yuan/ton, with the mainstream basis at 01 - 73 [3]. - MEG: An Inner Mongolia 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant plans to shut down for maintenance soon. A Shaanxi 180,000 - ton/year plant plans to shut down a 600,000 - ton/year production unit this week until the end of the year. A Southwest 600,000 - ton/year plant plans to shut down for about two weeks in mid - to - late November [3][5]. - Polyester: A 250,000 - ton/year polyester plant in East China has recently switched back to producing polyester bottle chips. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on November 3 were generally weak, with an average sales rate estimated to be below 40%. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber on November 3 was 47% [6]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6640 | 22 | 0.33% | | PTA Main | 4596 | 10 | 0.22% | | MEG Main | 3970 | - 48 | - 1.19% | | PF Main | 6178 | - 20 | - 0.32% | | SC Main | 467.9 | 9.2 | 2.01% | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China | 820 | - 0.33 | | PTA East China | 4535 | 25 | | MEG Spot | 4065 | - 46 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 582.38 | 1.88 | | Dated Brent | 66.02 | 0.74 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 239.83 | - 3.88 | | PTA Processing Fee | 120.05 | - 42.39 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 273.44 | 10.11 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 78.76 | 18.99 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX Trend Intensity: 0 - PTA Trend Intensity: 0 - MEG Trend Intensity: - 1 [6] Suggestions - PX: Pay attention to shorting PXN on rallies. The domestic plant operating rate has reached a new high. Although some refineries may reduce their loads due to sanctions, it does not currently affect the PX operating rate. The cost - side aromatics blending oil demand supports valuation [7]. - PTA: Operate within a range. Short on rallies when the processing fee is above 300. The polyester load has rebounded, and the short - term supply has decreased, but the future inventory build - up pattern is clear [7]. - MEG: Short the spread on rallies. Although some coal - chemical plants plan to conduct maintenance, the supply pressure remains large from mid - November. Observe the operating conditions of marginal high - cost plants [7][8].