贵金属日评：美联储降息预期转鹰或使贵金属价格承压-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut has decreased, and a one - year economic and trade agreement has been reached between China and the US. The liquidity in the US inter - bank market is tight, the US credit crisis has eased, and the debt of major global countries has decreased, which may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela are difficult to resolve, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries around the world, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries around the world support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 921.02 yuan/gram, with changes compared to previous days and weeks. The trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads also had corresponding data [1] - Spot Shanghai Gold T+D: The trading volume was 54,322.00, and the open interest was 257,838.00, with changes compared to previous periods [1] - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 213.00 yuan/ten - gram, and there were details about trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads [1] - Spot Shanghai Silver T+D: The trading volume was 1,294,530.00, and the open interest was 360,214.00, with corresponding changes [1] - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 4143.20, and data on trading volume, open interest, and inventory were provided [1] - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 48.25, and there were details about trading volume, open interest, and inventory [1] - International Gold: The London Gold Spot price was 17.35 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR and iShare Gold ETFs also had corresponding data [1] - International Silver: The London Silver Spot price was 48.96 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of relevant ETFs were provided [1] 2. Price Ratios - The price ratios of Shanghai Gold to Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Gold Spot to Shanghai Silver Spot, New York Gold Futures to New York Silver Futures, and London Gold Spot to London Silver Spot were given, with their respective changes [1] 3. Other Commodity Markets - Crude Oil: INE Crude Oil was 458.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent Oil was - 1.38 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX Crude Oil was 60.88 dollars/barrel [1] - Copper: Shanghai Copper Futures was 87,010.00 yuan/ton, and LME Copper Spot was 10,891.50 dollars/ton [1] - Steel and Iron Ore: Shanghai Rebar was 3,106.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian Iron Ore was 802.50 yuan/ton [1] 4. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: SHIBOR, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield, TIPS yield, and 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate had corresponding data [1] - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.9334, and the exchange rates of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan, euro to the Chinese yuan were provided [1] 5. Stock Index Markets - Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index had their closing prices and changes [1] 6. Important Information - The US government shutdown is approaching the historical record, and the longer it lasts, the more cautious the Fed will be. Three Fed officials opposed the October interest rate cut, and Waller supports a December cut. There is a rare divergence within the Fed, and "Old Bond King" Gross short - sold US Treasuries [1] 7. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract at high prices. For London Gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai Gold, pay attention to the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London Silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55. For Shanghai Silver, pay attention to the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1]