合成橡胶：成本坍塌，弱势运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The取值 range of trend strength is [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]. Report's Core View - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline. With ample supply, downstream support is limited, and the short - term market expectation is bearish. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are downward, and the spot price center is gradually moving down. The cost reduction of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. Under the background of a neutral fundamental pattern of cis - butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of price - profit contraction. With weak macro - driving and weak industrial chain fundamentals, cis - butadiene rubber is in a weak operation. Attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand pattern of cis - butadiene rubber will improve in November [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the 12 - contract of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 10,360 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 31,566 hands to 149,850 hands, the open interest decreased by 3,695 hands to 37,796 hands, and the trading volume increased by 150,980 ten - thousand yuan to 782,908 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene minus the futures main contract increased by 125 to 340, the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 increased by 30 to 65. The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene (private) decreased by 200 - 250 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,700 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 200 - 255 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: The operating rate of cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 67.2943%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene decreased by 309 yuan/ton to 9,916 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 191 yuan/ton to 584 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - Butadiene Market: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline. Due to ample supply, the support from downstream demand is limited. The short - term market expectation is bearish. The delivery price in Shandong's Luzhong area is about 7,090 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China is about 6,900 - 7,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Butadiene Inventory: As of October 29, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports is about 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in sample ports has significantly increased due to the arrival of imported ships and the accumulation of some trade inventories. Merchants expect the import volume in November to remain ample [2][3]. - Market Outlook: The short - term weakness of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are downward, and the spot price center is gradually moving down. The cost reduction of butadiene leads to an obvious expansion of the processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber. Under the background of a neutral fundamental pattern of cis - butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of price - profit contraction. With weak macro - driving and weak industrial chain fundamentals, cis - butadiene rubber is in a weak operation. Attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand pattern of cis - butadiene rubber will improve in November [3].