烧碱：成本支撑，震荡行情

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term,烧碱 has cost support and may have a valuation repair market due to the significant drop in weekend liquid chlorine prices leading to a sharp rise in caustic soda costs and the current 01 contract price being in a loss state [3] - Long - term, the alumina production cut will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain, and the pattern can only be changed by supply - side production cuts, so attention should be paid to the supply changes under the background of liquid chlorine and low profits [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 01 contract futures price is 2350, Shandong's cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price is 780, Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2438, and the basis is 88 [1] Spot News - On November 3, the Shandong liquid caustic soda market was mostly stable. Individual enterprises in southwestern and southern Shandong lowered their prices. Due to increased supply in the west, high - price products had poor sales, so they were sold at reduced prices [2] Market Situation Analysis - Weekend liquid chlorine prices dropped significantly to about - 100 yuan/ton in Shandong, causing a sharp increase in caustic soda costs. The 01 contract is in a loss state, so its valuation is low [3] - The pattern of high production and high inventory of caustic soda continues, and the market has been short - selling chlor - alkali profits [3] - The impact of alumina's production launch and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. The winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited [3] - Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with a range of [- 2,2] and classifications including weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3][4]