11月存单会提价吗？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The money market in November may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level, with stability expected. However, the increase in liquidity demand, deposit "migration", and credit expansion may add uncertainty to the money market. The central bank's liquidity injection remains a key factor for the stable operation of the money market [2][78]. - The rigid supply of certificates of deposit (CDs) will increase from November to December. The marginal impact of new policy - based financial instruments on credit and the outflow of high - interest deposits will also add variables to the supply and demand of CDs. There are three possible scenarios for CD market trends [2][3]. Summary by Directory 10 - Month Review: Super - Seasonal Stability of Funds and Price Increase of CDs 1.1 Review: Characteristics of the Money Market in October - Super - seasonal stability of funds: In October, the money market was more stable than in previous years. After the cross - quarter period, the money market entered a state of low - level and low - volatility. In the last week of October, due to the resonance of cross - month and tax payment periods, the money market rate increased moderately, but the fluctuation was smaller than the seasonal level. The reasons include limited disturbances and strong liquidity supply [10]. - Positive net financing and price increase of CDs: In October, the net financing of CDs was 61.12 billion yuan, turning positive for the first time since June, reaching a new high since the second quarter. The structure was mainly dominated by joint - stock banks and 6 - month CDs. At the beginning of the month, there was a trend of price increase, which may reflect the short - term pressure on the bank's liability side [16][18]. - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases may bring additional benefits: On October 27, the central bank governor mentioned the resumption of treasury bond trading operations. The resumption may be due to the objective need for base money injection, and changes in the bond market supply - demand relationship and yield curve shape may no longer be constraints [24]. 1.2 Focus: Reasons for the Price Increase of CDs - Supply - side dominance: The price increase of CDs in October was mainly driven by the supply side. Although the non - bank buying power increased, the relative absence of allocation power from state - owned banks and rural commercial banks limited the protection of the CD adjustment market. Once the issuance increased, the price increase pressure emerged [27]. - Issuance increase leading to price increase: The supply of CDs increased in October, with the net financing turning positive for the first time since June. Joint - stock banks and 6 - month CDs had significant increases in issuance and net financing. The reasons include the joint - stock banks' need to catch up on the use of the annual quota, cost considerations, and the need to improve the NSFR indicator [28][29]. - Limited support from bank buying: The CD buying structure in October showed a pattern of "weak banks and strong non - banks". State - owned banks and rural commercial banks were net sellers for most of the time, providing limited protection for the price increase. In contrast, wealth management products and money market funds increased their buying, which constrained the upward space of CD prices [38]. November Focus: More Variables but Expected Stability 2.1 Review: Limited Impact of Seasonal Factors - Diverse historical trends: In different years, the money market rate in November showed different trends. In 2020 and 2022, the money market rate fluctuated greatly, mainly affected by events such as the "Yongmei incident" and wealth management redemptions. In 2021 and 2024, the money market rate was relatively stable, supported by sufficient liquidity supply. In 2023, the money market rate showed a unilateral upward trend, mainly due to increased liquidity demand [46][47][48]. - Limited impact of seasonal factors: The impact of seasonal factors on the money market is relatively limited. Fiscal expenditures usually support the money market, while M0 and reserve requirements cause minor disturbances. Non - seasonal factors such as redemption pressure, the "Yongmei incident", and increased government bond issuance have a strong influence on the money market, and the central bank's liquidity injection is a key variable [54]. 2.2 Changes and Constants in November this Year - Increased non - seasonal disturbances: In November, the demand for liquidity is expected to be high, with high medium - and long - term liquidity withdrawal, a slight increase in CD maturity compared to the same period last year, and the issuance of 50 billion yuan of local government bond balance limits in the fourth quarter. Structural factors such as the impact of new policy - based financial instruments on credit, the outflow of high - interest fixed deposits, and the trend of deposit currentization and non - bankization may also amplify liquidity demand [2][62]. - Support from liquidity supply: Under the current supportive monetary policy, the central bank has a strong intention to protect the money market. The money market has been in a stable and balanced state for a long time, with low - level and low - volatility money market rates. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading operations may provide additional support. The probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter is also increasing [2][76]. 2.3 Outlook for the CD Market - Increased supply: From November to December, the rigid supply of CDs will increase due to the increase in maturity and the possibility of some banks "catching up" to use their annual quota. The marginal impact of new policy - based financial instruments on credit and the outflow of high - interest deposits will add variables to the supply and demand of CDs [2][79]. - Three scenarios for market trends: - Positive scenario: Supply and demand are balanced, and CD rates decline moderately. With moderate deposit outflow, the bank's liability side is stable, and non - bank institutions are willing to allocate CDs, so the CD supply and demand remain balanced, and the 1 - year CD rate may fall to 1.60% - 1.65% [3][81]. - Neutral scenario: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and CD rates fluctuate more. The bank faces some liability outflow, but the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection provides support. The 1 - year CD rate will remain in the range of 1.65% - 1.70%, but the increase in the proportion of trading - disk funds may amplify the rate fluctuations [4][82]. - Negative scenario: Supply increases, and CD rates rise under pressure. With large - scale deposit outflow, the bank needs to issue more CDs, but the non - bank demand is diverted by other assets, so the 1 - year CD rate may exceed 1.70% [5][83].