Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, port prices are falling rapidly, the supply - demand pattern is "supply increasing and demand weakening", inventory is difficult to deplete. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, there is a risk of further decline in the future. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, supply and demand have both increased, the market is in a relatively loose pattern, and there is limited upward momentum. Given the low absolute price, the downside space is also limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. - For rubber, the price shows signs of stabilization. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is suggested, and partial position building for the hedge strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is strong and demand is weak, export expectations are weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's advisable to look for shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, the global monetary policy is loose, the inventory is declining from a high level, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure is high, demand is in a seasonal rebound, and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the market [24]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and the PXN spread is expected to be under pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there is a chance of processing fee repair. It's recommended to pay attention to this opportunity [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is in the process of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 8.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.85% increase, at 467.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 7.99 million barrels, a 7.80% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 16.94 million barrels, a 5.04% increase; overall refined oil inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.54 million barrels, a 0.66% decline [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - Market Information: The price in Taicang decreased by 57 yuan, Inner Mongolia by 15 yuan, and southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 37 yuan to 2143 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 43 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 16 yuan to - 96 yuan [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Port prices are falling rapidly, the supply - demand pattern is "supply increasing and demand weakening", inventory is difficult to deplete. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, there is a risk of further decline in the future. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - Market Information: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei decreased. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1623 yuan, with a basis of - 73 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 8 yuan, reporting - 86 yuan [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply and demand have both increased, the market is in a relatively loose pattern, and there is limited upward momentum. Given the low absolute price, the downside space is also limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price is near the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. Bulls expect an increase due to seasonal and demand factors, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline. Spot prices of some rubber products decreased [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price shows signs of stabilization. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is suggested, and partial position building for the hedge strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [13]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4680 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 110 yuan, a 19 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 yuan, a 10 - yuan decrease. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons; social inventory was 103 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is strong and demand is weak, export expectations are weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's advisable to look for shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [14][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene decreased, and the basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene increased, while the futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decline; the three - S weighted operating rate on the demand side was 42.09%, a 0.68% decline. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily [18]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6888 yuan/ton, a 11 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 122 yuan, a 11 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The global monetary policy is loose, the inventory is declining from a high level, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6576 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 64 yuan, a 14 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [22][23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply pressure is high, demand is in a seasonal rebound, and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the market [24]. PX - Market Information: The PX01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 6640 yuan. PX CFR decreased by 1 dollar to 819 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices had restarts or maintenance. PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decrease. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, a 4.7 - ton increase year - on - year. In late September, inventory was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 240 dollars, a 4 - dollar decrease; the naphtha crack spread was 107 dollars, a 4 - dollar increase [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The load is high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and the PXN spread is expected to be under pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract increased by 10 yuan to 4596 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decrease; the downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. On October 31, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 220.7 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The spot processing fee increased by 32 yuan to 147 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 5 yuan to 240 yuan [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there is a chance of processing fee repair. It's recommended to pay attention to this opportunity [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract decreased by 48 yuan to 3970 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 38 yuan to 4068 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan, a 5 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan, a 7 - yuan decrease. The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase; the downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The import arrival forecast was 19.8 tons, and port inventory increased by 3.9 tons to 56.2 tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 723 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 516 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 628 yuan [30]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is in the process of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].
能源化工日报-20251104
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-04 01:55