铅锌日评：沪铅高位回落，沪锌持续上行动力或不足-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Lead: The lead price is under pressure and may oscillate downward due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and good refinery profits with an open import window [1]. - Zinc: The zinc price has some support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. The domestic mine supply pattern has tightened, and the terminal demand is weak. The Fed's hawkish stance on interest - rate cuts also suppresses the zinc price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - Prices: The SMM1 lead ingot average price remained flat, and the Shanghai lead futures main - contract closed 0.17% higher than the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) price was unchanged at $2,025/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio rose 0.17% to 8.60 [1]. - Supply: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in production. The supply of secondary lead has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume production [1]. - Demand: The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises' operations are stable, with an increase in demand [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold existing short positions [1]. Zinc Market - Prices: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.32%, and the Shanghai zinc futures main - contract rose 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio rose 0.94% to 7.40 [1]. - Supply: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc - ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc - concentrate processing fees may continue to decline in October. Refinery production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month [1]. - Demand: There is no significant improvement in demand. The zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London price ratio deteriorates [1]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. Other Information - In Shandong's Binzhou, the subsequent vehicle trade - in subsidy activity will implement a "qualification first, subsidy application later" policy from November 5 to December 31, 2025 [1]. - In Guangdong's Shaoguan, the Phase I mining project for resource integration at the Fankou Lead - Zinc Mine started, with a total investment of 830 million yuan and expected annual revenue increase of over 400 million yuan after reaching full production [1].