宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年11月4日）：品种观点参考-20251104

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report provides intraday, short - term, and medium - term views and core logics for three agricultural commodity futures: soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. It analyzes the price driving factors of each commodity and points out future areas of concern [5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Price View: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5] - Core Logic: U.S. soybean futures prices are above 1100 cents per bushel, supported by the expectation of Sino - U.S. trade relaxation and the news that China plans to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans. However, the key report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on November 14 may bring uncertainties. If the report lowers the yield per unit, it may strengthen the strong oscillation of U.S. soybeans. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has risen slightly due to poor crushing margins of oil mills and strong price - holding intentions. But the demand side is affected by breeding losses, and the decline in Brazilian premium will limit the rebound of soybean meal futures prices. In the short term, the supply pressure in the domestic industrial chain will still restrict the rebound space of futures prices [5][6] - Future Concerns: South American weather and the actual fulfillment of purchases [6] Palm Oil (P) - Price View: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5][7] - Core Logic: Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% month - on - month. The current loose supply - demand pattern of palm oil is difficult to change in the short term. The contradiction between the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and weak exports is prominent, and the weakening demand after India's Diwali festival intensifies the inventory accumulation expectation. In addition, the high port inventory of palm oil in China has increased the pressure on the domestic palm oil market. In the short term, palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower integer level [7] - Future Concerns: Production and sales data in Southeast Asia and the inventory reduction rhythm in China [7] Soybean Oil (Y) - Price View: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - Core Influencing Factors: Sino - U.S. relations, U.S. biofuel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [5]