宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年11月4日）-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has not improved, and steel prices are seeking a bottom through oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. With increased production by construction steel mills, rebar output has been rising continuously, and the high inventory level has increased supply pressure. Although rebar demand has improved seasonally and high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, it is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the sustainability of the improvement is questionable. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices continue to face pressure. However, strong cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and steel prices are oscillating to find a bottom [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of rebar has little change. Steel mill production has increased, leading to a continuous rise in output and high inventory, increasing supply pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but remains at a low level in recent years, and the sustainability is uncertain. In the context of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure. Cost support is strong, and rebar is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, with demand performance being a key factor [3].