宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年11月4日）-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both Jiao Coal (JM) and Coke (J) in the 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - Price行情驱动逻辑: As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.3 thousand tons per day, and 2.2 thousand tons per day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 - port was 4,814, a weekly decrease of 2,406 trucks. Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia in the middle of the month, the customs clearance efficiency dropped significantly, but it has returned to normal this week, with the daily number of trucks increasing to about 1,200. On the demand side, as of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of Jiao Coal has no significant change. The upward driving force mainly comes from the macro - level benefits brought by the relaxation of Sino - US trade relations, as well as the strong expectations of safety supervision and anti - involution on Jiao Coal supply [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - Price行情驱动逻辑: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. After the second round of price increase of coke was implemented, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steel Union was - 32 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 9 yuan, but still in a loss state, and the production enthusiasm has not significantly improved. The coking enterprises still have the intention to raise prices. On the demand side, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 236.36 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 3.54 thousand tons per day, and the profitability rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, the supply of coke is stable, the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are marginally weakening. However, during the week, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders reached multiple economic and trade consensuses, and the cooling of trade frictions has improved the market sentiment, so the coke futures temporarily maintain high - level operation [6].