宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年11月4日）-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", with an overall view of "oscillation" due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For major Treasury bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". In the long - run, there is still an expectation of loose domestic monetary policy, but the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low. Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; overall view: oscillation. The core logic is a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. In the long - run, there is an expectation of loose domestic monetary policy, but the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low. The price index and employment index sub - items of the latest manufacturing PMI data are weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed in the long - run to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, it is not difficult to achieve this year's growth target, and monetary policy usually cooperates with fiscal and industrial policies. So, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5].