宝城期货甲醇早报-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5]. - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the driving force of macro factors has weakened. The domestic methanol market has high production and import pressure, high port inventories, and poor olefin profits, resulting in a weak demand situation that needs improvement. The methanol 2601 contract is likely to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - On Monday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping 2.09% to 2,110 yuan/ton [5]. Market Conditions - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - Although the downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit on the futures market is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5]. Macro Factors - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, the two sides made positive progress in economic and trade tariffs, but the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5].