Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures and industries, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, considering factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, and macroeconomic conditions. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - Copper: Market showed weak oscillation yesterday. With a four - day increase in the US dollar index and China's manufacturing PMI under expectation, domestic weekly inventory rose by 175 tons and wire - cable operating rate declined. The trading strategy is to maintain a view of weak - upward oscillation [1]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 1.41%. Supply side saw an increase in operating capacity, while demand side had a slight decline in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and domestic aluminum ingot destocking should be monitored [1]. - Alumina: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price fell 0.14%. Affected by pollution warnings, northern production capacity decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Zinc: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.74%. Supply side had a decline in zinc concentrate processing fees, and consumption was in the off - season. LME inventory formed a bottom support, and the Fed's hawkish stance pressured the price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Lead: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.46%. Supply side was marginally loose, and consumption had mixed factors. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the trading strategy is range - based operation [2]. - Industrial Silicon: Monday's main contract rose. Supply side had a reduction in furnace - opening numbers in the southwest, and both social and warehouse - receipt inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by high - operating - rate industries. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: Yesterday, the main contract rose. Supply decreased last week, and demand was strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the trading strategy is to take small - position long positions and sell put options [2]. - Polysilicon: Monday's main contract fell. Domestic photovoltaic installation growth in Q4 is under pressure. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions [2]. - Tin: Yesterday, the price oscillated weakly. Supply side was slowly recovering, and demand was based on needs. The trading strategy is to take an oscillation view in the short - term [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. Building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore: The main contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Supply increased, and demand decreased. The trading strategy is to hold short positions, with a reference range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal: The main contract closed at 1287.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Supply - side inventory was divided, and there was an expectation of production reduction. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1260 - 1310 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. Supply side had a slight US soybean reduction and a South American increase expectation. Demand side had improved export and crushing. The US soybeans are short - term strong, and domestic prices follow the cost side [5][6]. - Corn: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to be weak due to new - crop pressure. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate weakly [6]. - Oils and Fats: The Malaysian market was weak. Supply in Malaysia was higher than expected, and demand had a slight increase in exports. The trading strategy is that oils and fats are weak with differentiation, and the structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [6]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose. Internationally, the price was expected to be weak, while domestically, it was strong. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - Cotton: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. Internationally, production was expected to decline, and domestically, the price oscillated down. The trading strategy is to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [6]. - Eggs: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to oscillate strongly due to supply - demand growth. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate within a range [6]. - Pigs: Futures prices were weak, and supply pressure remained large. The trading strategy is that futures prices will be weak [6]. - Apples: The main contract fell. Different regions had different situations, and the price rose due to concerns about the future market. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - PVC: The main contract closed at 4682 yuan/ton, down 1.1%. Supply increased, and demand had a slight recovery. The trading strategy is to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - PTA and PX: PX supply was balanced, and PTA had a slight destocking. PX is expected to be strong, and PTA should be shorted at high prices in the long - term [8][9]. - Rubber: Monday, the main contract oscillated widely. Raw materials were under pressure, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations. The price is expected to find a bottom under pressure [9]. - Glass: The main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. Supply - demand was weak, and the trading strategy is reverse arbitrage [9]. - PP: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [9]. - MEG: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [9]. - Crude Oil: Oil prices oscillated. Supply pressure was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day, it can be shorted at high prices [10]. - Styrene: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply - demand was weak, and the short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [10]. - Soda Ash: The main contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, down 2.5%. Supply - demand was balanced, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [10].
商品期货早班车-20251104
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-11-04 02:15