宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-04：品种晨会纪要-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 is expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - period Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to a month): The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [1][5]. Driving Logic - Macro factor: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in Busan, South Korea, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was profit - taking in the market [5]. - Geopolitical factor: The US increased troops in the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, threatening Venezuela, which escalated the South American geopolitical conflict, boosting the international crude oil premium and hedging geopolitical risks to some extent [5]. - Market performance: On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillating and strongly - biased trend, with the futures price closing slightly up 0.41% to 467.1 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strongly - biased trend on Tuesday [5].