国新国证期货早报-20251104

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On November 3, 2025, the three major A-share indexes closed slightly higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 13404.06 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.29% to 3196.87 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.1071 trillion yuan, a decrease of 210.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on November 3, closing at 4653.40, a rise of 12.73 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 3, the coke weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1800.0, a decrease of 20.6 [3]. - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow consolidation on November 3, closing at 1299.8 yuan, a decrease of 11.6 [4]. - Coke: Supply recovery is limited due to environmental protection, maintenance, and limited profits. Demand is strong as coke enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and most steel mills are purchasing as needed. Inventory is at a low level. The fundamentals are strong [5]. - Coking coal: The second round of price increases for coke has been partially implemented, and the third round is expected to be implemented strongly. The price of coking coal has risen to a new high this year. Supply is tight [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors, ICE sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Friday. The new sugar of Mengpeng Sugar Factory of Yunnan Yingmao Sugar Industry is on the market, with a price of 5700 yuan/ton in the Kunming market. Supported by factors such as the rebound of ICE sugar and the strong price of new sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated upward on Monday [5]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and closed slightly lower on Monday. Affected by the significant increase in the total inventory of rubber in Qingdao Port last week, the bears pressured the night - session of Shanghai rubber to fluctuate slightly lower. As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a rise of 3.57% [6]. Soybean Meal - On November 3, the international CBOT soybean reached a 16 - month high. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3026 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.71%. The current strength of the domestic soybean meal futures market is mainly due to the rising import cost driven by the continuous rise of US soybeans. The upward momentum may weaken in the future [8]. Live Pigs - On November 3, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. The supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the short - term support for pig prices has weakened. The situation of "supply exceeding demand" has not changed fundamentally [9]. Palm Oil - On November 3, the palm oil futures continued to be under selling pressure, and the main contract P2601 closed down 1.14%. As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 2.36% week - on - week but increased by 17.29% year - on - year [9]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2512 main contract oscillated. The trading volume and open interest decreased, indicating that the bulls' willingness to close positions increased. The macro - face and fundamentals are both weak, and it is under pressure at a historical high [10]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13585 yuan/ton on the night of Monday. The cotton inventory increased by 80 lots compared with the previous trading day. The new cotton warehousing has accelerated, and the inventory at ports has increased. The average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 3 was 6.30 yuan/kg [11][12]. Logs - The 2601 contract of logs opened at 788, closed at 782, and increased in positions by 1243 lots on November 3. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually destocking. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [13]. Iron Ore - On November 3, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.82%, closing at 782.5 yuan. The supply pressure has eased, but the iron - making output has decreased, and the price is in an oscillating trend [13]. Asphalt - On November 3, the asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed down 0.58%, at 3233 yuan. The utilization rate of asphalt production capacity increased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The demand is slowly released, and the price mainly follows the cost of crude oil and oscillates [13]. Steel - On November 3, rb2601 closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3295 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is difficult to rise further in early November, and the supply and demand are both weak. The steel price may oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 3, al2512 closed at 21600 yuan/ton. The supply is limited by capacity policies, and the demand is stable. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price center of electrolytic aluminum is expected to move up steadily [14]. Alumina - On November 3, ao2601 closed at 2789 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina supply is in a "surplus" state, and the procurement demand has declined. The price is under pressure [15].