L、PP日报：偏弱运行，空单持有-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations and analyses of the plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) markets, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. The market trends of L and PP are affected by various factors such as futures prices, factory prices, downstream demand, and macro - economic indicators. Different trading strategies are proposed based on these factors, including holding or trying long/short positions, and setting stop - loss points [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - L Plastic: In most cases, the L2601 contract showed small fluctuations, and the LLDPE market price had partial increases or decreases. Market trading sentiment was generally cautious, with downstream demand mainly based on orders. For example, on 25 - 11 - 04, the L2601 contract closed at 6859 points, down 29 points or - 0.42%, and the LLDPE market price continued to be weak [1]. - PP Polypropylene: The PP2601 contract also fluctuated slightly. The PP market price was mostly in a weak adjustment state, with some prices rising or falling. Downstream procurement was relatively cautious. For instance, on 25 - 11 - 04, the PP2601 contract closed at 6546 points, down 30 points or - 0.46%, and the PP market price was weakly sorted [1]. Important News - Industry - related Policies: The 7 - department issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added value from 2025 to 2026 and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [22]. - Company - related Developments: For example, Liaoyang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton/year nylon 66 project was successfully put into operation, and the 40,000 - ton/year ultra - high - molecular weight polyethylene transformation project was advanced simultaneously [40]. Logical Analysis - Positive Factors for Polyolefins: Some factors were positive for polyolefins, such as the increase in domestic automobile daily sales index in September, the increase in the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index (business volume) in September, and the increase in domestic pipeline transportation industry fixed - asset investment completion in August [8][49][38]. - Negative Factors for Polyolefins: Some factors were negative, like the decrease in the Brent crude oil monthly average price in October, the decrease in the domestic real estate prosperity index in August, and the increase in the domestic automobile dealer inventory coefficient in September [32][49][38]. Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: Strategies included holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach. For example, on 25 - 11 - 04, it was recommended to hold short positions in the L main 01 contract and set the stop - loss at 6890 points; for the PP main 01 contract, it was advisable to try short positions and set the stop - loss at 6580 points [2]. - Arbitrage Trading: Most of the time, it was recommended to take a wait - and - see approach, and in some cases, hold or reduce positions. For example, on 25 - 10 - 20, the L2601 - PP2601 (1 - hand to 1 - hand) spread was reported at + 314 points and was recommended to be held with the stop - loss set at + 311 points [41]. - Options Trading: In most cases, it was recommended to take a wait - and - see approach, and in some cases, sell and hold options with stop - loss settings [19].