冠通期货资讯早间报-20251104

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overnight - US stocks: The three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P 500 rose 0.17%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.46%. The Wande US Tech Seven Giants Index rose 1.04%. Amazon hit a record high, up 4%, and Tesla rose more than 2%. Chinese concept stocks were mixed [5]. - European stocks: The three major European stock indexes closed mixed. The German DAX index rose 0.68%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.14%, and the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.16%. European stocks were affected by the strength of US tech stocks and weak eurozone manufacturing data [5]. - Precious metals: International precious metals closed mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.43% to $4013.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.52% to $47.91 per ounce. Gold was supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and Fed rate - cut expectations [5]. - Crude oil: US crude oil futures rose 0.04% to $61.02 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 0.14% to $64.86 per barrel [6]. - Base metals: London base metals were mixed. LME zinc, aluminum, and lead rose, while tin, copper, and nickel fell [8]. 2. Important Macroeconomic News - China - South Korea currency swap: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement worth 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years, which helps deepen currency and financial cooperation and promote trade [10]. - China's manufacturing PMI: In October, RatingDog's China manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6, with most sub - indicators declining month - on - month, and new export orders falling into contraction [10]. - Fed officials' views: Fed Governor Smilan said current monetary policy is too tight, and Governor Cook said a December rate cut is possible, depending on future data [10][12]. - US Treasury borrowing: The US Treasury estimated borrowing of $569 billion in Q4, $21 billion less than the July estimate [10]. 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - Oil demand outlook: ADNOC CEO said oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day after 2040, but warned of near - term challenges [14]. - Oil price forecast: Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude price forecast to $60 per barrel in H1 2026, and expects supply - demand balance in H2 2027 with prices rising to $65 [14]. - Styrene inventory: As of November 3, 2025, Jiangsu styrene port inventory decreased by 7.10% week - on - week [15]. - Log出库量: Last week, the average daily出库量 of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces decreased by 2.48% [15]. - OPEC's view: OPEC Secretary - General said the organization sees positive oil demand signs, expects 1.3 million barrels per day growth this year, and OPEC+ will pause production increases in Q1 2026 [16]. 4. Metal Futures - Alumina production: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the operating capacity decreased slightly [19]. - Copper production: Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month but down 4.5% year - on - year [19]. - PV component price: JinkoSolar expects component prices to face short - term pressure and recover in Q2 2026 [19]. 5. Black - Series Futures - Iron ore arrivals: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased by 1.2298 million tons week - on - week [21]. - Iron ore shipments: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 174,500 tons week - on - week [21]. - Steel inventory: In late October, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 3.3% month - on - month [21]. 6. Agricultural Futures - Palm oil production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month [24]. - Pig farming cost: Muyuan's pig - farming cost in September 2025 was about 11.6 yuan/kg [25]. - Pig and grain prices: As of October 29, the national pig price rose 4.59% week - on - week, and the pig - grain ratio rose 5.52% [25]. - Soybean crushing: In October, the soybean crushing volume of major Chinese oil mills decreased, but is expected to reach 9 million tons in November [25]. - Palm oil exports: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025, increased by 26.54% year - on - year [26]. - Indian edible oil imports: India's 2024/2025 edible oil imports increased slightly, with palm oil imports down and soybean oil imports up [26]. - Brazilian crop sowing: As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate reached 47%, and the first - crop corn sowing area reached 60% of the planned area [27]. - US soybean exports: As of October 30, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume decreased week - on - week [27]. 7. Financial Markets Financial - Regulatory official's case: Former CSRC vice - chairman Wang Jianjun was investigated for serious violations [30]. - A - share market: A - shares rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55%, and the trading volume was 2.13 trillion yuan [30]. - Hong Kong stock market: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.97%, and southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.472 billion [30]. - Brokerage "golden stocks": As of November 3, 186 stocks were short - listed for November "golden stocks", and industry insiders are optimistic about tech - growth sectors [32]. - ETF approval: The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the issuance of the ChinaAMC CSI Smart - Selected Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Technology 50 ETF, expected to start in December [32]. Industry - AI development: The Minister of Industry and Information Technology called for promoting the "two - way empowerment" of AI innovation and manufacturing applications [33]. - Display equipment: Three high - end equipment for 8.6 - generation large - size OLED screens were launched at the 2025 World Display Industry Innovation and Development Conference [33]. - Robot industry: In the first three quarters of this year, China's robot industry revenue increased by 29.5% year - on - year [33]. - Marine economy: In the first three quarters, China's marine GDP reached 7.9 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year [33]. - Water - saving equipment: The MIIT and the MWR issued a plan to promote the high - quality development of water - saving equipment by 2027 [35]. - Auto market: The auto consumption index in October was 90.5, and the November retail sales are expected to increase slightly [36]. - Memory market: Three major memory manufacturers suspended DDR5 quotes, and the resumption is expected in mid - November [36]. Overseas - New Zealand visa policy: Chinese passport holders entering from Australia can enter New Zealand visa - free for up to 3 months from November 3, 2025, on a 12 - month trial basis [37]. - Fed officials' views: Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, and Governor Cook said a December rate cut is possible [37]. - US aviation safety: US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the government may close the aviation system if the "shutdown" affects safety [37]. - US corporate layoffs: As of September, US corporate layoffs reached nearly 950,000, the highest since 2020 [39]. - US manufacturing PMI: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month [39]. - Eurozone economic situation: The eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was 50, with new orders flat and exports falling [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks: The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, and over 100 S&P 500 companies will release earnings this week [40]. - European stocks: The three major European stock indexes closed mixed, affected by US tech stocks and eurozone manufacturing data [40]. - South Korean stocks: The South Korean Composite Index broke through 4200 points for the first time, driven by the semiconductor sector [42]. - Company news: Beyond Meat postponed its Q3 earnings, and Palliser pressured Rio Tinto to bid for Teck Resources [42][43]. Commodities - Precious metals: International precious metals closed mixed, with gold rising and silver falling [44]. - Crude oil: Crude oil prices rose, supported by OPEC+ production decisions and institutional price forecasts [44]. - Base metals: London base metals were mixed [44]. Bonds - Domestic bonds: The domestic bond market fluctuated narrowly, and most Treasury bond futures contracts declined [46]. - US bonds: US bond yields rose across the board [46]. - Corporate bond issuance: Alphabet plans to raise $17.5 billion in US dollar bonds and at least €3 billion in euro bonds [47]. Foreign Exchange - Currency swap: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement [48]. - RMB exchange rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the RMB exchange rate index reached a new high since April [48]. - Dollar index: The US dollar index rose 0.15%, and most non - US currencies fell [49]. 8. Upcoming Events - Central bank events: The RBA will announce its interest - rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will speak at multiple events [53]. - Conferences: The 2025 Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Digital Transformation Conference and the 2025 Auto Core Components Advanced Manufacturing Technology Forum will be held [53]. - Budget and reports: Canada will announce its annual budget, and the RBNZ will release its financial stability report [53]. - Earnings reports: AMD, Yum China, and Uber will release earnings [53].