股指日报：成交热度下降，短期延续盘整态势-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillating [1] - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index rose first and then fell. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 continued to rise, while large - cap indexes like the SSE 300 and SSE 50 were weak [3]. - Currently, the market's upward momentum has weakened compared to the third quarter. The short - term focus is on the pressure of the index breaking through previous highs, but there is no major adjustment risk under the slow - bull tone, and high - level consolidation may become the norm [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Core Logic Summary - The upward momentum has weakened, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the index breaking through previous highs. Although positive factors such as the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft, the China - US meeting, and the Fed's signal of interest - rate cuts have boosted investor sentiment, the upward momentum has weakened, as shown by limited trading volume increase and a decline in implied volatility [3]. - There is no major adjustment risk, and high - level consolidation may be the norm. The current index is at a relatively high historical level, but considering the slow - bull market rhythm, restrained policy, and non - overheated market sentiment, there is no major adjustment risk, and high - level consolidation is expected to last longer [3]. Operation Suggestions - In futures trading, buy on dips rather than chase highs. The entry point can refer to the 20 - day moving average and the low on September 4th, and pay attention to the pressure of breaking through the October high. It is recommended to prioritize IF and IC contracts [4]. - In options trading, as the implied volatility continued to fall yesterday and the average IV of the SSE 300 in the current month is around 15% (a historical median level), it is advisable to wait for a second wave of rising volatility before entering double - selling strategies and to stay on the sidelines in the short term [4]. Macro Stock Market Information - The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continues to restrict rare - earth exports, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [5]. - The Ministry of Finance has established a Debt Management Department to manage government debt, including formulating policies, planning debt limits, and preventing implicit debt risks [5]. Stock Index Disk Review - In the previous trading day, the A - share market bottomed out and rebounded. The SSE 50 rose 0.16%, the SSE 300 rose 0.27%, the CSI 500 rose 0.04%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.42%. The forestry and oil and gas sectors led the gains, while the soft - drink and precious - metal sectors lagged. More than 3,500 stocks rose, and 91 stocks hit the daily limit [5]. - At the daily - line level, the pressure reappeared. The index generally found support at the 20 - day moving average, and the next support level is the low on September 4th. The monthly - line trend remains upward [5]. - The trading volume of the A - share market narrowed to about 2.1 trillion yuan, indicating a decline in investors' willingness to enter the market [5].