新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-4）-20251104

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore - Adjustment; Coal and Coke - Rebound; Rolled Steel and Rebar - Oscillation; Glass - Oscillation; Soda Ash - Weak [2] - Financial Industry: CSI 500 - Rebound; CSI 1000 - Rebound; 2 - year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury Bond - Upward; Gold - High - level Oscillation; Silver - High - level Oscillation [3] - Light Industry: Log - Weak Oscillation; Pulp - Bottom Consolidation; Double - offset Paper - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Range Movement; Meal - Rebound; Soybean No.2 - Rebound; Soybean No.1 - Rebound; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a Bullish Bias [5][6][7] - Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - See; PTA - Oscillation; MEG - Wait - and - See; PR - Wait - and - See; PF - Wait - and - See [9] 2. Core Views - Black Industry: After the macro - positive factors are realized, the black prices return to the fundamentals. The iron ore market is in a pattern of loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The coal and coke market is affected by multiple news, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit of steel mills. The steel and glass markets are mainly in oscillation due to supply - demand contradictions [2]. - Financial Industry: The central and western regions of China have achieved new highs in foreign trade. The stock index market is expected to rise in the medium - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The bond market shows a small - scale rebound, and it is advisable to hold long positions lightly. The gold price is affected by various factors and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3]. - Light Industry: The log market is under supply pressure and weak demand, with prices expected to be weakly oscillating. The pulp market is expected to bottom - consolidate. The edible oil market has sufficient supply and weak demand, continuing range movement. The meal market is expected to rebound in the short - term. The live pig market is expected to rise slightly in the coming week [5][6][7]. - Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry: The natural rubber market has a decreasing inventory, and prices may oscillate widely. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different supply - demand situations, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations or are in a wait - and - see state [9]. 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron Ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year - high, with a month - on - month increase of 12.298 million tons (59%). The iron - water output has declined, and the demand in the real estate industry is weak. The port inventory has increased, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. Follow four main lines for price re - pricing [2]. - Coal and Coke: Multiple news has pushed up the prices. The core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. If the finished steel weakens, the scope of steel mill maintenance may expand, which will suppress the raw material prices. Coke has started the third round of price increases, and the short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. - Rolled Steel and Rebar: After the macro - positive factors are realized, the prices return to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar is low, and the demand is weak. The steel price may stop falling if the output reduction in Q4 2025 exceeds 5% and the anti - "involution" policy is implemented effectively [2]. - Glass: The news of cold - repair of production lines due to coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe is fermenting. The real - estate demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory is increasing. The glass daily melting volume needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to solve the supply - demand contradiction [2]. Financial Industry - Stock Index: The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are expected to rebound. The market is short - term consolidating and upward in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - Treasury Bond: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the market has a small - scale rebound. It is advisable to hold long positions lightly [3]. - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting from real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by currency, financial,避险, and commodity attributes, and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3]. Light Industry - Log: The port inventory is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. The CFR price has increased, and the market is waiting and seeing [5]. - Pulp: The spot price is slightly stronger, but the cost support is weakening. The paper mill demand is poor, and the price is expected to bottom - consolidate [5]. - Edible Oils: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to continue range movement. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - Meal: Supported by the rebound of US soybeans, the prices are expected to rebound in the short - term. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the progress of Sino - US trade [6][7]. - Live Pigs: The average trading weight has decreased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is increasing with the cooling weather. The price is expected to rise slightly in the coming week [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Rubber: The production in some areas is affected by weather, the demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - PX: OPEC+ plans to suspend production increase, which eases supply - demand concerns. The short - term supply increases and demand decreases, and the price follows oil prices [9]. - PTA: The long - term oil price is expected to be weak, and the cost support is weakening. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - MEG: The supply is at a high level, the demand is expected to decline, and the price is under pressure from long - term inventory accumulation [9]. - PR: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the market is in a weak oscillation [9]. - PF: The raw material supply is increasing, and the market lacks positive factors, expected to be weakly sorted [9].