煤焦：情绪变化扰动价格震荡运行

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - atmosphere supports market sentiment. In the short term, the supply - demand of coal and coke fluctuates marginally and remains at a relatively high level overall. The inventory pressure is temporarily not significant. The prices should be treated with cautious optimism, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high level [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content - Market Conditions - The upward trend of coal and coke futures prices slowed down due to the weak prices of steel and ore, and the prices fluctuated near the upper edge of the 1100 - 1300 oscillation range. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and many coke enterprises started the third round of price increase, which may be implemented this week [3]. - The Fed cut interest rates as expected last week, and the China - US trade negotiation progressed smoothly with reduced frictions. The 15th Five - Year Plan in China was released beyond market expectations, enhancing market risk appetite and supporting the recovery of market sentiment [3]. - Fundamentals - Supply - On the domestic side, some coal mines in Shanxi resumed production last week, but the number of shut - down coal mines in Lvliang increased, and the production of a large mine in Xingxian stopped, dragging down the overall production data. The daily average output of coking coal last week was 75.8 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3 million tons compared with the previous week [3]. - On the import side, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to 16.43 million tons, an increase of 5.6 million tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. - Fundamentals - Demand - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, the current profitability rate would not lead to large - scale production cuts of steel mills for the time being. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.55 million tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei [3]. - As the peak demand season was approaching the end, the pressure on finished products increased, and the pig iron output tended to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3].