产业链负反馈驱动不?，宏观及政策利好仍可期待

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7]. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of this week, the macro and policy fronts "paused", and the subsequent inventory pressure corresponding to the high arrival of iron ore made the iron ore price relatively under pressure. After entering November, the molten iron output will decline seasonally, weakening the demand support for the furnace charge end. However, seasonal production cuts rather than negative - feedback production cuts will put relatively limited downward pressure on the prices of industrial chain varieties. If the macro and policy levels release positive news later, it will still support the prices of sector varieties [1][2]. - The fundamentals of the industrial chain will gradually weaken marginally. Since the decline in molten iron is mainly due to the seasonal production cuts of steel enterprises, the negative feedback on sector varieties is limited. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of macro and policy introduction and pay attention to phased upward opportunities [7]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - The arrival rhythm of iron ore is significantly disturbed, and the port inventory is rapidly accumulating. The fundamentals of iron ore are not optimistic, but the decline of ore price is limited. The scrap steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and it is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate following the finished products in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke continues to strengthen, and the third round of price increase is expected to be implemented. However, under the pressure on both coking and steel mill profits, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, with the price expected to oscillate [2]. Alloy - The high steel output and stable cost support the prices of ferromanganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, but the supply of ferromanganese - silicon is expected to remain high, with inventory pressure and limited upward driving force. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Some production lines in the Shahe area stopped production, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. If the production and sales remain weak, the price will return to weak oscillation. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline oscillating. The over - supply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [3]. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The molten iron output declines, the five major steel products output increases, the demand continues to recover, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The short - term market is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the macro - policy and supply disturbances [9]. Iron Ore - The spot price has weakened significantly. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and arrivals increased significantly. The demand for molten iron decreased, and the port inventory accumulated rapidly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The supply is slightly tight, the overall daily consumption decreases, and the inventory is de - stocked. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate following the finished products [11]. Coke - The cost support is strengthening, and the third - round price increase is expected to be implemented. However, both coking and steel mill profits are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Coking Coal - The supply is difficult to improve, and the downstream and middle - stream procurement is continuous. The coal mine inventory has reached a low level in recent years, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [14]. Glass - The short - term supply may decline, but the demand is weak, and the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The short - term price may return to weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is expected to decline oscillating [15]. Soda Ash - The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support is strengthened, and the price bottom support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [16][17]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price. However, the supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the upward driving force for the price is insufficient [18]. Ferrosilicon - The high steel output and increased cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, suppressing the upward price space [19].