尿素早评：情绪好转，反转存疑-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply - demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived. The current urea valuation is relatively low, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for cautious restocking at low prices. Possible future driving factors include the renovation of old chemical industry equipment on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31 [1]. - UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. - UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the small - particle urea spot price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%) from October 31 [1]. - In Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton on November 3, down 10 yuan (-0.68%) from October 31 [1]. - In Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) from October 31 [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31 [1]. - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton on November 3, down 8 yuan from October 31 [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite coal price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. - The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 269,753 hands [1]. Trading Strategy Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1].