Bank of China Securities·2025-11-04 03:23Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The sales of the top 100 real estate companies in October showed a significant year-on-year decline of 39.8%, indicating a weakening market [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted to emphasize "high-quality development" in real estate, focusing on improving systems, optimizing supply, and enhancing quality [5] - New housing transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis but shows a year-on-year decline, with inventory levels decreasing [4][15] Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of October 25-31, 2025, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 25,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 5.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.0% [17] - The new housing transaction area was 2.64 million square meters, up 3.1% month-on-month but down 37.3% year-on-year [26] - Inventory levels in 12 cities decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and 12.2% year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 18.8 months [41] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land area transacted across 100 cities was 2.035 billion square meters, a month-on-month increase of 79.6% and a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [62] - The total land transaction price was 50.1 billion yuan, up 160.8% month-on-month but down 20.5% year-on-year [68] - The average land price per square meter was 2,461.5 yuan, up 45.3% month-on-month but down 32.7% year-on-year [64] 3. Policy Overview - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on improving basic systems for property development, financing, and sales [5] - Local governments are implementing measures such as electronic consumption vouchers for homebuyers and mandating the use of green building materials [95][96] 4. Company Performance - The top 20 real estate companies showed varied performance, with Greenland and China Railway achieving positive sales growth of 67% and 61% respectively in October [4] - The overall absolute return for the real estate sector was -0.7%, indicating a decline compared to previous weeks [13]