农产品日报：糖价止跌反弹，棉价延续震荡-20251104

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][7] Core Views - Cotton: In the short term, the upper limit of the cotton futures market is under significant hedging pressure, and there is a possibility of a callback to test previous lows after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the current cotton price is undervalued. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed [2] - Sugar: Before the end of the year, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate. Next year, the situation is not optimistic, and there is a possibility of new lows [5] - Pulp: The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the pulp price is likely to remain in the bottom - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of demand during the peak season in the fourth quarter [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,656 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - US Cotton: From October 24 to 30, 2025, 202,500 tons of US 2025/26 cotton were graded and inspected, with 80.7% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, pushing up US cotton prices, but the amount of US cotton China will purchase is unclear. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply and demand pressure [2] - Domestic: The new cotton year starts with low inventory, but new cotton is being listed. The purchase price of seed cotton is rising, and the expected decline in production supports the post - holiday market. However, the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, there is a high hedging pressure on the market, and in the long - term, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5499 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5695 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - New Sugar: On October 30, 2025, Yingmao Sugar Industry's Mengpeng Sugar Mill started production, and the new sugar is priced at 5700 yuan/ton, 710 yuan lower than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - International: The global sugar market is in a bearish cycle due to oversupply from Brazil and India. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has decreased recently, the long - term rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - Domestic: The new sugar season in China is expected to have increased production, but the price is near the production cost, and the tightening of syrup control policies supports the price, limiting the downside [4] Strategy - Neutral. The market will fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5306 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton (+1.80%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [5] - Market: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising moderately, with different price increases in various regions and pulp types [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply. Domestic imports have increased, and port inventories remain high [6] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices. Despite new production capacity, effective demand is lacking, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp price is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7]