铁矿石：政策进入真空期，市场回归现实端

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the weakening of macro - drivers, the trading of the black series will return to the real - world situation. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the overall supply - demand of iron ore tends to accumulate inventory, but the inventory accumulation pressure is within an expectable range, and the current domestic basis is still relatively high with a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Last week, the black series rebounded collectively, with raw material prices rising more significantly due to positive macro - drivers such as the Fed's interest rate cut, better - than - expected Sino - US trade negotiation results, and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan. However, in the short term, it will enter a policy vacuum period. The Fed's interest rate cut has fully realized its positive impact, and hawkish statements have curbed market optimism. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses more on new - quality productivity, with limited and long - term boost to steel demand. Although the adjustment of Sino - US tariff policies may maintain export resilience, the reality of weak supply and demand in domestic manufacturing data is difficult to improve [3] Supply - Overseas iron ore supply is increasing steadily, but the supporting strength is continuously weakening. In October, the weekly average shipment from Australia and Brazil was 27.32 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to October, the weekly average shipment was 25.46 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume in October will remain at a high level. In November, due to seasonal maintenance of Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipment ports, the supply is expected to decline by 10 million tons month - on - month but still have an increase of over 3 million tons year - on - year. Due to the high shipment in October, the arrival volume in November is expected to remain at an absolute high level, basically flat month - on - month and an increase of over 10 million tons year - on - year [3] Demand - Domestic demand has been declining month - on - month mainly because of the temporary tightening of environmental protection in Hebei, which led some steel mills to shut down or reduce their loads. This week, although the blast furnace operating rate increased, the molten iron output decreased. In addition, due to the continuous decline in finished product prices, the loss range of steel mills has further expanded, and the profitability rate has dropped to the lowest level of the year. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability rate are continuously declining due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline slope is not steep. Coupled with steel mills entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [3] Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill end has rebounded slightly month - on - month as steel mills enter the seasonal restocking cycle. Due to the high arrival volume at the same period and the decline in port clearance volume due to weather reasons, the port inventory has been continuously accumulating month - on - month [3] Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 760 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to an overseas price of about 100 - 107 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [5]