豆一上涨空间有限，花生市场关注油厂动向

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans is neutral [3] - The investment rating for peanuts is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The soybeans market is currently in a state of oversupply, and there is a risk of price correction during the concentrated selling period. The price increase in the short - term is limited due to high prices and competition from the Huanghuaihai region [1][3] - The peanut market shows large variety and regional price differences. Attention should be paid to farmers' subsequent shipping enthusiasm and the acquisition intention of major oil mills [3][5] Market Analysis Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract yesterday was 4076.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 26.00 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 + 4, a change of + 26 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. The warehouse capacity is saturated, the acquisition is difficult, and the price is high. Some grain merchants are shifting their focus from acquisition to sales [1][2] - Market information: The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market is stable. Farmers' willingness to hold prices has loosened, and the atmosphere of panic buying has cooled [1] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract yesterday was 7800.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 7950.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 120.00 yuan/ton (+ 1.53%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 + 0.00, a change of - 88.00 (- 100.00%) from the previous day [3] - Market information: The national average price of common peanuts is basically stable, with large variety and regional price differences. The contract purchase price of oil mills is 7800 - 8200 yuan/ton for common peanuts and 7750 - 7800 yuan/ton for oil peanuts, with strict quality control and general arrival volume [3] Strategy Soybeans - The new - season soybeans in the Hubei and Hunan regions are gradually on the market, and downstream demand is picking up. However, due to high prices and competition, the short - term market will be stable, and the price increase space is limited. The unilateral strategy is neutral [3] Peanuts - The strategy is neutral, and the risk is weakening demand [6]