油脂日报：中加贸易摩擦持续，菜油价格震荡-20251104

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed oil fluctuates due to the ongoing China - Canada trade friction, and the future trend depends on the changes in China - Canada tariff policies [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8664.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 100 yuan and a decline of - 1.14% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8110.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 18.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.22% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9470.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 48.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.51% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 70.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.81%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 114.00, with a change of + 30.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8260.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 30.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 0.36%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 150.00, with a change of - 12.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9840.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 50.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 370.00, with a change of + 2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary India's Edible Oil Imports - India's total edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 16 million tons [2] - India's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% year - on - year to 7.56 million tons, the lowest level in five years [2] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year increased by 61.6% year - on - year to a record 5.56 million tons [2] Brazil's Crop Planting - As of October 30, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the expected sown area, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall [2] - In the Brazilian Central - South region, the planting rate of the first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 60%, basically the same as 59% in the same period last year [2] US Government Shutdown - Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips pointed out that the current US government shutdown may have an unprecedented economic impact, with a longer duration and a wider scope of affected government departments [2] - If the US government shutdown lasts for six weeks, it may reduce the US economic growth in the fourth quarter by 1.15 percentage points, and a rebound is expected by early 2026 [2]