国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - Silver: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - Copper: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - Zinc: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - Lead: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - Aluminum: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - Alumina: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - Nickel: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - related: - LPG: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - Fuel Oil: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - Chemicals: - PTA: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - MEG: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - Rubber: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - Asphalt: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - LLDPE: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - PP: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - Caustic Soda: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - Paper Pulp: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - Methanol: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - Urea: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - Styrene: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - Soda Ash: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - Oils and Fats: - Palm Oil: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - Soybean Oil: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - Grains and Oilseeds: - Soybean Meal: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - Soybean: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - Corn: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - Sugar and Cotton: - Sugar: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - Cotton: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - Livestock and Poultry: - Eggs: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - Pigs: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].