中辉有色观点-20251104

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound, long - term sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Short - term rebound [1] - Tin: Short - term rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Short - term strong [1] - Nickel: Short - term weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Short - term rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US government shutdown, weak economic data, and Fed's internal divergence affect the precious metals market. Gold and silver are recommended for long - term value allocation, and short - to medium - term entry opportunities are available [1][3][4] - For copper, although there are short - term supply and demand disturbances, the long - term outlook remains positive, and short - term dips can be used to buy [1][6][7] - Zinc shows a short - term rebound but a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease situation, so it is advisable to sell on rallies [1][9][10] - Aluminum is in a transition from peak to off - peak season, with a short - term strong trend, and short - term profit - taking on rallies is recommended [1][11][13][14] - Nickel is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand, and rebound selling is recommended [1][15][17] - Lithium carbonate has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but is affected by short - term news. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][18][20][21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Short - term price fluctuations are narrow, and attention is paid to US data and government shutdown [2] - Basic Logic: Weak US economic data, continuous government shutdown, internal Fed divergence, and long - term bullish factors for gold such as global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - to medium - term entry, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver, and hold long - term value - allocation positions [4] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai and London copper are oscillating at high levels [6] - Industrial Logic: Chilean copper production decline, expected reduction in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter, and weakening demand in the off - season [6] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, buy on dips near 84500 - 85500, hold long - term strategic positions, and use options for hedging in the industry [7] Zinc - Market Review: London zinc rose nearly 2%, and Shanghai zinc followed slightly [8][9] - Industrial Logic: New zinc production in Xinjiang, lower zinc concentrate processing fees, and expected reduction in domestic zinc production in November [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Observe the breakthrough of the 22800 resistance level in the short term, and sell on rallies in the long term [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina is relatively weak [12] - Industrial Logic: Weakening Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation, high domestic electrolytic aluminum production, and weakening demand [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Take short - term profits on rallies and pay attention to the开工 rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel has fallen significantly [16] - Industrial Logic: Accumulation of nickel inventory at home and abroad, and weakening downstream demand for stainless steel [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Sell on rebounds and pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 opened low and fluctuated widely, closing slightly lower [19] - Industrial Logic: Marginal improvement in fundamentals with continuous inventory reduction, but short - term negative impact from news [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for the market to stabilize in the range of 81600 - 83000 [21]