中辉期货：螺纹钢早报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil): Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bearish [1][7] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1][10] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [1][13] - Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon): Cautiously bearish [1][17] Core Views of the Report - For rebar, weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, with weak supply and demand in the off - season, and iron water production decreased significantly, and mid - term it will run in a range with potential short - term weakness [1][4][5] - For hot rolled coil, both apparent demand and production recovered, inventory decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in previous years, and mid - term it will run in a range with potential short - term correction [1][4][5] - For iron ore, iron water production decreased significantly this week due to environmental protection and maintenance, with mills reducing inventory and ports accumulating inventory, and short - term ore prices will fluctuate weakly [1][6][7] - For coke, the second round of price increases has fully landed, and the expectation of the third round is strengthening. Although iron water production has declined, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and prices will remain strong [1][9][10] - For coking coal, coal mine production and operating rates decreased slightly, supply may tighten in November, and although demand weakened marginally, the supply - demand pattern is still healthy, with prices remaining strong [1][12][13] - For manganese silicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, inventory increased, and short - term cost provides some support, but overall it's bearish [1][16][17] - For ferrosilicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, inventory increased significantly, and it's bearish due to the loose fundamentals and potential upward pressure on coal prices [1][16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Variety View: Rebar shows weak supply - demand in the off - season with iron water production decline, and hot rolled coil has recovered demand and production but high inventory [4] - Market Data: Futures and spot prices of rebar and hot rolled coil mostly declined, and there were changes in basis, futures spreads, and other indicators [2] - Operation Suggestion: Rebar has limited upward and downward drivers, running in a mid - term range with potential short - term weakness; hot rolled coil runs in a mid - term range with potential short - term correction [5] Iron Ore - Variety View: This week, iron water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection and maintenance, mills reduced inventory, ports accumulated inventory, and external ore arrivals increased significantly, with a neutral - bearish static fundamentals [6] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish, as production cuts and supply increases put pressure on ore prices [7] Coke - Variety View: The second round of price increases has fully landed, the third - round expectation is strengthening, and although iron water production has declined, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, with some mills still replenishing inventory [9] - Market Data: Futures prices of coke contracts decreased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as inventory and production [8] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [10] Coking Coal - Variety View: Coal mine production and operating rates decreased slightly, supply may tighten in November due to over - production checks and political instability in Mongolia, and although demand weakened marginally, the supply - demand pattern is still healthy [12] - Market Data: Futures prices of coking coal contracts decreased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as inventory and production [11] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [13] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Variety View: For manganese silicon, production area supply is high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased; for ferrosilicon, production area supply remains high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased significantly [16] - Market Data: Futures and spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had different changes, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production and inventory [15] - Operation Suggestion: For manganese silicon, cautiously bearish with short - term cost support; for ferrosilicon, bearish due to loose fundamentals and potential upward pressure on coal prices [17]