【资产配置快评】2025年第49期：Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹-20251104

Group 1: Inflation and Asset Performance - The total return ratio of gold to U.S. Treasuries has surged to 0.38 as of October 2025, indicating that high inflation risks may have been fully priced in[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.1%, despite the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut, reflecting concerns over inflation rather than economic downturn[10] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 4.4%, which is one standard deviation below the 16-year average, suggesting potential for valuation uplift[18] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Financing Pressures - The U.S. Treasury has increased debt issuance significantly, leading to a surge in the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which reached over $50 billion, a five-year high[13] - Commercial bank reserves have dropped from $3.4 trillion to $2.9 trillion, resulting in increased short-term dollar financing pressures[16] - The 10-year Chinese government bond forward arbitrage return is at 27 basis points, which is 57 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Indicators - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -24.6 basis points, indicating higher offshore dollar financing costs, while the Libor-OIS spread is at 106.3 basis points, reflecting eased offshore dollar financing pressures[25] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has fallen to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.1, indicating diverging signals between the two metrics[27] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.6, above the average level of the past 16 years, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets relative to fixed income[29]